Modelling the impact of HIV prevention and treatment for men who have sex with men on HIV epidemic trajectories in low- and middle-income countries

Little is known about the impact of combination HIV prevention interventions for men who have sex with men (MSM) and the impacts on the wider epidemics. Modelling analyses of MSM-specific interventions across varied HIV epidemics may inform evidence-based responses. The Goals model was adapted to project the impacts of providing HIV interventions for MSM and access to expanded coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for adults to measure the effects on the MSM and adult epidemics in Peru, Ukraine, Kenya and Thailand. Positive impacts were observed in all four countries. Across epidemics, 14-25% of infections among MSM may be averted between 2012 and 2016 when MSM interventions are brought to scale and MSM have equal access to expanded ART for adults. Among adults, MSM interventions may avert up to 4000 new infections, in addition to the benefits associated with increased ART. Greatest impacts from expanded interventions were observed in countries where same sex transmission contributes significantly to the HIV epidemic. While significant benefits are observed among the adult and MSM populations with expansion of ART, consideration should be given to the synergies of combining ART expansion with targeted interventions to reach hidden, high-risk populations for HIV testing and counselling and linkages to care.