Modeling the spread of annual influenza epidemics in the U.S.: The potential role of air travel

R. F. Grais; J. H. Ellis; A. Kress; G. E. Glass

doi:10.1023/B:HCMS.0000020652.38181.da

Modeling the spread of annual influenza epidemics in the U.S. The potential role of air travel

R. F. Grais, J. H. Ellis, A. Kress, G. E. Glass

Bloomberg School of Public Health

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

86 Scopus citations

Abstract

The role of air travel in the global spread of influenza has been the subject of a significant body of research, but this question has yet to be explored within the U.S. The goal of this research is to explore whether knowledge of U.S. air travel patterns and volumes leads to better forecasting of epidemics. We report the results of a series of simulations for the 1998-1999 through 2000-2001 influenza seasons using a standard compartmental model coupled with air transportation data. These preliminary results suggest that air travel may play an important role in the spread of annual influenza within the U.S., particularly in cities with large air travel volumes.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	127-134
Number of pages	8
Journal	Health Care Management Science
Volume	7
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1023/B:HCMS.0000020652.38181.da
State	Published - May 2004

Keywords

Air travel
Epidemic model
Geographic
Influenza
Simulation
Spatial

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Medicine (miscellaneous)
Health Professions(all)

Access to Document

10.1023/B:HCMS.0000020652.38181.da

Cite this

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title = "Modeling the spread of annual influenza epidemics in the U.S.: The potential role of air travel",

abstract = "The role of air travel in the global spread of influenza has been the subject of a significant body of research, but this question has yet to be explored within the U.S. The goal of this research is to explore whether knowledge of U.S. air travel patterns and volumes leads to better forecasting of epidemics. We report the results of a series of simulations for the 1998-1999 through 2000-2001 influenza seasons using a standard compartmental model coupled with air transportation data. These preliminary results suggest that air travel may play an important role in the spread of annual influenza within the U.S., particularly in cities with large air travel volumes.",

keywords = "Air travel, Epidemic model, Geographic, Influenza, Simulation, Spatial",

author = "Grais, {R. F.} and Ellis, {J. H.} and A. Kress and Glass, {G. E.}",

note = "Funding Information: This research was partially supported by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Administration (DARPA) Biosur-veillance Program under DARPA Grant No. F30602-01-2-0550. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as representing official policies, either expressed or implied, of DARPA or the U.S. government. Copyright: Copyright 2008 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.",

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AU - Glass, G. E.

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