Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021

Rebecca K. Borchering; Cécile Viboud; Emily Howerton; Claire P. Smith; Shaun Truelove; Michael C. Runge; Nicholas G. Reich; Lucie Contamin; John Levander; Jessica Salerno; Wilbert Van Panhuis; Matt Kinsey; Kate Tallaksen; R. Freddy Obrecht; Laura Asher; Cash Costello; Michael Kelbaugh; Shelby Wilson; Lauren Shin; Molly E. Gallagher; Luke C. Mullany; Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett; Joseph C. Lemaitre; Juan Dent ScM; Kyra H. Grantz; Joshua Kaminsky; Stephen A. Lauer; Elizabeth C. Lee; Hannah R. Meredith; Javier Perez-Saez; Lindsay T. Keegan; Dean Karlen; Matteo Chinazzi; Jessica T. Davis; Kunpeng Mu; Xinyue Xiong; Ana Pastore Y. Piontti; Alessandro Vespignani; Ajitesh Srivastava; Przemyslaw Porebski; Srinivasan Venkatramanan; Aniruddha Adiga; Bryan Lewis; Brian Klahn; Joseph Outten; James Schlitt; Patrick Corbett; Pyrros Alexander Telionis; Lijing Wang; Akhil Sai Peddireddy; Benjamin Hurt; Jiangzhuo Chen; Anil Vullikanti; Madhav Marathe; Jessica M. Healy; Rachel B. Slayton; Matthew Biggerstaff; Michael A. Johansson; Katriona Shea; Justin Lessler

doi:10.15585/mmwr.mm7019e3

Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021

Rebecca K. Borchering, Cécile Viboud, Emily Howerton, Claire P. Smith, Shaun Truelove, Michael C. Runge, Nicholas G. Reich, Lucie Contamin, John Levander, Jessica Salerno, Wilbert Van Panhuis, Matt Kinsey, Kate Tallaksen, R. Freddy Obrecht, Laura Asher, Cash Costello, Michael Kelbaugh, Shelby Wilson, Lauren Shin, Molly E. GallagherLuke C. Mullany, Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Juan Dent ScM, Kyra H. Grantz, Joshua Kaminsky, Stephen A. Lauer, Elizabeth C. Lee, Hannah R. Meredith, Javier Perez-Saez, Lindsay T. Keegan, Dean Karlen, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Xinyue Xiong, Ana Pastore Y. Piontti, Alessandro Vespignani, Ajitesh Srivastava, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Aniruddha Adiga, Bryan Lewis, Brian Klahn, Joseph Outten, James Schlitt, Patrick Corbett, Pyrros Alexander Telionis, Lijing Wang, Akhil Sai Peddireddy, Benjamin Hurt, Jiangzhuo Chen, Anil Vullikanti, Madhav Marathe, Jessica M. Healy, Rachel B. Slayton, Matthew Biggerstaff, Michael A. Johansson, Katriona Shea, Justin Lessler

Bloomberg School of Public Health

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	719-724
Number of pages	6
Journal	MMWR Recommendations and Reports
Volume	70
Issue number	19
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7019e3
State	Published - 2021

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Epidemiology
Health(social science)
Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis
Health Information Management

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10.15585/mmwr.mm7019e3

Cite this

Borchering, R. K., Viboud, C., Howerton, E., Smith, C. P., Truelove, S., Runge, M. C., Reich, N. G., Contamin, L., Levander, J., Salerno, J., Panhuis, W. V., Kinsey, M., Tallaksen, K., Obrecht, R. F., Asher, L., Costello, C., Kelbaugh, M., Wilson, S., Shin, L., ... Lessler, J. (2021). Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021. MMWR Recommendations and Reports, 70(19), 719-724. https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7019e3

Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021. / Borchering, Rebecca K.; Viboud, Cécile; Howerton, Emily et al.

In: MMWR Recommendations and Reports, Vol. 70, No. 19, 2021, p. 719-724.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Borchering, RK, Viboud, C, Howerton, E, Smith, CP, Truelove, S, Runge, MC, Reich, NG, Contamin, L, Levander, J, Salerno, J, Panhuis, WV, Kinsey, M, Tallaksen, K, Obrecht, RF, Asher, L, Costello, C, Kelbaugh, M, Wilson, S, Shin, L, Gallagher, ME, Mullany, LC, Rainwater-Lovett, K, Lemaitre, JC, ScM, JD, Grantz, KH, Kaminsky, J, Lauer, SA, Lee, EC, Meredith, HR, Perez-Saez, J, Keegan, LT, Karlen, D, Chinazzi, M, Davis, JT, Mu, K, Xiong, X, Piontti, APY, Vespignani, A, Srivastava, A, Porebski, P, Venkatramanan, S, Adiga, A, Lewis, B, Klahn, B, Outten, J, Schlitt, J, Corbett, P, Telionis, PA, Wang, L, Peddireddy, AS, Hurt, B, Chen, J, Vullikanti, A, Marathe, M, Healy, JM, Slayton, RB, Biggerstaff, M, Johansson, MA, Shea, K & Lessler, J 2021, 'Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021', MMWR Recommendations and Reports, vol. 70, no. 19, pp. 719-724. https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7019e3

@article{88c5635c75514fa9a1ac28bf311c64a3,

title = "Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021",

author = "Borchering, {Rebecca K.} and C{\'e}cile Viboud and Emily Howerton and Smith, {Claire P.} and Shaun Truelove and Runge, {Michael C.} and Reich, {Nicholas G.} and Lucie Contamin and John Levander and Jessica Salerno and Panhuis, {Wilbert Van} and Matt Kinsey and Kate Tallaksen and Obrecht, {R. Freddy} and Laura Asher and Cash Costello and Michael Kelbaugh and Shelby Wilson and Lauren Shin and Gallagher, {Molly E.} and Mullany, {Luke C.} and Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett and Lemaitre, {Joseph C.} and ScM, {Juan Dent} and Grantz, {Kyra H.} and Joshua Kaminsky and Lauer, {Stephen A.} and Lee, {Elizabeth C.} and Meredith, {Hannah R.} and Javier Perez-Saez and Keegan, {Lindsay T.} and Dean Karlen and Matteo Chinazzi and Davis, {Jessica T.} and Kunpeng Mu and Xinyue Xiong and Piontti, {Ana Pastore Y.} and Alessandro Vespignani and Ajitesh Srivastava and Przemyslaw Porebski and Srinivasan Venkatramanan and Aniruddha Adiga and Bryan Lewis and Brian Klahn and Joseph Outten and James Schlitt and Patrick Corbett and Telionis, {Pyrros Alexander} and Lijing Wang and Peddireddy, {Akhil Sai} and Benjamin Hurt and Jiangzhuo Chen and Anil Vullikanti and Madhav Marathe and Healy, {Jessica M.} and Slayton, {Rachel B.} and Matthew Biggerstaff and Johansson, {Michael A.} and Katriona Shea and Justin Lessler",

note = "Funding Information: All authors have completed and submitted the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors form for disclosure of potential conflicts of interest. Katriona Shea reports receipt of two National Science Foundation (NSF) COVID-19 RAPID awards, and a Huck Institutes of the Life Sciences Coronavirus Research Seed Grant. Rebecca Borchering reports funding from an NSF COVID-19 RAPID award. Katharine Tallaksen, Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, Laura Asher, Luke C. Mullany, Molly E. Gallagher, Matt Kinsey, Richard F. Obrecht, and Lauren Shin report funding from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory. Matteo Chinazzi reports grants from the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE), and Metabiota to Northeastern University. Ana Pastore y Piontti reports funding from Metabiota, Inc. to Northeastern University and royalties from Springer Publishing. Joseph Lemaitre reports funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation, State of California, HHS, and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Kyra H. Grantz reports support from the California Department of Public Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, NIH, and travel support from the World Health Organization (WHO). Elizabeth Lee and Claire Smith report support from the California Department of Public Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins Health System, HHS, and DHS, and computing resources from Amazon Web Services, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, and the Office of the Dean at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Justin Lessler reports support from DHHS, DHS, California Institute of Technology, NIH, honorarium from the American Association for Cancer Research, personal fees for expert testimony from Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison, LLP. Lindsay Keegan reports support from the State of California, and NIH, a University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, and Infectious Disease Seed Grant, and a scholarship from the University of Washington Summer Institute in Statistics and Modeling of Infectious Diseases. Lucie Contamin, John Levander, Jessica Salerno, and Willem Gijsbert van Panhuis report a National Institute of General Medical Sciences grant. Ajitesh Srivastava reports a grant from the National Science Foundation. Michael C. Runge reports stock ownership in Becton Dickinson & Co., which manufactures medical equipment used in COVID testing, vaccination, and treatment. Alessandro Vespignani reports grants from NIH, NSF, WHO, CSTE, Metabiota Inc., Templeton Foundation, Scientific Interchange Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; royalties from Cambridge University Press, World Scientific, Springer Publishing, and Il Saggiatore; consulting fees from Human Technopole Foundation, Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, honorarium for lecture module at University of Washington; Scientific Advisory Board member of the Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, Italy, Supervisory Board member of the Human Technopole Foundation, Italy; and gifts to Northeastern University from the McGovern Foundation, the Chleck Foundation, the Sternberg Family, J. Pallotta, and Google Cloud research credits for COVID-19 from Google. Akhil Sai Peddireddy, Pyrros A. Telionis, Anil Vullikanti, Jiangzhuo Chen, Benjamin Hurt, Brian D. Klahn, Bryan Lewis, James Schlitt, Joseph Outten, Lijing Wang, Madhav Marathe, Patrick Corbett, Przemyslaw Porebski, and Srinivasan Venkatramanan report institutional support from the National Science Foundation, Expeditions, NIH, the U.S. Department of Defense, Virginia Department of Health, Virginia Department of Emergency Management, University of Virginia (internal seed grants), and Accuweather. No other potential conflicts of interest were disclosed.",

year = "2021",

doi = "10.15585/mmwr.mm7019e3",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "70",

pages = "719--724",

journal = "MMWR. Recommendations and reports : Morbidity and mortality weekly report. Recommendations and reports / Centers for Disease Control",

issn = "1057-5987",

publisher = "Public Health Services, US Dept of Health and Human Services",

number = "19",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021

AU - Borchering, Rebecca K.

AU - Viboud, Cécile

AU - Howerton, Emily

AU - Smith, Claire P.

AU - Truelove, Shaun

AU - Runge, Michael C.

AU - Reich, Nicholas G.

AU - Contamin, Lucie

AU - Levander, John

AU - Salerno, Jessica

AU - Panhuis, Wilbert Van

AU - Kinsey, Matt

AU - Tallaksen, Kate

AU - Obrecht, R. Freddy

AU - Asher, Laura

AU - Costello, Cash

AU - Kelbaugh, Michael

AU - Wilson, Shelby

AU - Shin, Lauren

AU - Gallagher, Molly E.

AU - Mullany, Luke C.

AU - Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin

AU - Lemaitre, Joseph C.

AU - ScM, Juan Dent

AU - Grantz, Kyra H.

AU - Kaminsky, Joshua

AU - Lauer, Stephen A.

AU - Lee, Elizabeth C.

AU - Meredith, Hannah R.

AU - Perez-Saez, Javier

AU - Keegan, Lindsay T.

AU - Karlen, Dean

AU - Chinazzi, Matteo

AU - Davis, Jessica T.

AU - Mu, Kunpeng

AU - Xiong, Xinyue

AU - Piontti, Ana Pastore Y.

AU - Vespignani, Alessandro

AU - Srivastava, Ajitesh

AU - Porebski, Przemyslaw

AU - Venkatramanan, Srinivasan

AU - Adiga, Aniruddha

AU - Lewis, Bryan

AU - Klahn, Brian

AU - Outten, Joseph

AU - Schlitt, James

AU - Corbett, Patrick

AU - Telionis, Pyrros Alexander

AU - Wang, Lijing

AU - Peddireddy, Akhil Sai

AU - Hurt, Benjamin

AU - Chen, Jiangzhuo

AU - Vullikanti, Anil

AU - Marathe, Madhav

AU - Healy, Jessica M.

AU - Slayton, Rachel B.

AU - Biggerstaff, Matthew

AU - Johansson, Michael A.

AU - Shea, Katriona

AU - Lessler, Justin

N1 - Funding Information: All authors have completed and submitted the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors form for disclosure of potential conflicts of interest. Katriona Shea reports receipt of two National Science Foundation (NSF) COVID-19 RAPID awards, and a Huck Institutes of the Life Sciences Coronavirus Research Seed Grant. Rebecca Borchering reports funding from an NSF COVID-19 RAPID award. Katharine Tallaksen, Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, Laura Asher, Luke C. Mullany, Molly E. Gallagher, Matt Kinsey, Richard F. Obrecht, and Lauren Shin report funding from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory. Matteo Chinazzi reports grants from the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE), and Metabiota to Northeastern University. Ana Pastore y Piontti reports funding from Metabiota, Inc. to Northeastern University and royalties from Springer Publishing. Joseph Lemaitre reports funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation, State of California, HHS, and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Kyra H. Grantz reports support from the California Department of Public Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, NIH, and travel support from the World Health Organization (WHO). Elizabeth Lee and Claire Smith report support from the California Department of Public Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins Health System, HHS, and DHS, and computing resources from Amazon Web Services, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, and the Office of the Dean at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Justin Lessler reports support from DHHS, DHS, California Institute of Technology, NIH, honorarium from the American Association for Cancer Research, personal fees for expert testimony from Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison, LLP. Lindsay Keegan reports support from the State of California, and NIH, a University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, and Infectious Disease Seed Grant, and a scholarship from the University of Washington Summer Institute in Statistics and Modeling of Infectious Diseases. Lucie Contamin, John Levander, Jessica Salerno, and Willem Gijsbert van Panhuis report a National Institute of General Medical Sciences grant. Ajitesh Srivastava reports a grant from the National Science Foundation. Michael C. Runge reports stock ownership in Becton Dickinson & Co., which manufactures medical equipment used in COVID testing, vaccination, and treatment. Alessandro Vespignani reports grants from NIH, NSF, WHO, CSTE, Metabiota Inc., Templeton Foundation, Scientific Interchange Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; royalties from Cambridge University Press, World Scientific, Springer Publishing, and Il Saggiatore; consulting fees from Human Technopole Foundation, Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, honorarium for lecture module at University of Washington; Scientific Advisory Board member of the Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, Italy, Supervisory Board member of the Human Technopole Foundation, Italy; and gifts to Northeastern University from the McGovern Foundation, the Chleck Foundation, the Sternberg Family, J. Pallotta, and Google Cloud research credits for COVID-19 from Google. Akhil Sai Peddireddy, Pyrros A. Telionis, Anil Vullikanti, Jiangzhuo Chen, Benjamin Hurt, Brian D. Klahn, Bryan Lewis, James Schlitt, Joseph Outten, Lijing Wang, Madhav Marathe, Patrick Corbett, Przemyslaw Porebski, and Srinivasan Venkatramanan report institutional support from the National Science Foundation, Expeditions, NIH, the U.S. Department of Defense, Virginia Department of Health, Virginia Department of Emergency Management, University of Virginia (internal seed grants), and Accuweather. No other potential conflicts of interest were disclosed.

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

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U2 - 10.15585/mmwr.mm7019e3

DO - 10.15585/mmwr.mm7019e3

M3 - Article

C2 - 33988185

AN - SCOPUS:85105904575

SN - 1057-5987

VL - 70

SP - 719

EP - 724

JO - MMWR. Recommendations and reports : Morbidity and mortality weekly report. Recommendations and reports / Centers for Disease Control

JF - MMWR. Recommendations and reports : Morbidity and mortality weekly report. Recommendations and reports / Centers for Disease Control

IS - 19

ER -

Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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