Modeling of cost effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination strategies in U.S. Older Adults

Kenneth J. Smith, Angela R. Wateska, Mary Patricia Nowalk, Mahlon Raymund, Bruce Y. Lee, Richard K. Zimmerman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle


Background: The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) is approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for adults, but its role in older adults is unclear. Purpose: To compare PCV13 strategies to currently recommended vaccination strategies in adults aged 65 years. Methods: Using a Markov model, the cost effectiveness of PCV13 and the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23), alone or in combination, was estimated, in adults aged either 65 years or 75 years. No prior vaccination, prior vaccination, and vaccine hyporesponsiveness scenarios were examined. Pneumococcal disease rates, indirect childhood PCV13 effects, and costs were estimated using CDC Active Bacterial Core surveillance data and U.S. national databases. An expert panel estimated vaccine-related protection. A societal perspective was taken and outcomes were discounted 3% per year. Results: In those aged 65 years, single-dose PCV13 cost $11,300 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained compared to no vaccination; at ages 65 and 80 years, PCV13 cost $83,000/QALY. In those aged 75 years, single-dose PCV13 cost $62,800/QALY gained. PPSV23 cost more and was less effective than PCV13. Results were sensitive to varying vaccine effectiveness and indirect effect estimates. In hyporesponsiveness scenarios, cost-effectiveness ratios increased by 37%-78% for single-dose strategies and 29%-35% for multiple-dose strategies.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)373-381
Number of pages9
JournalAmerican journal of preventive medicine
Issue number4
StatePublished - Apr 2013
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

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