MINIMUM SIZE OF THE ACQUIRED IMMUNODEFICIENCY SYNDROME (AIDS) EPIDEMIC IN THE UNITED STATES

Ron Brookmeyer; Mitchell H. Gail

doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(86)91444-3

MINIMUM SIZE OF THE ACQUIRED IMMUNODEFICIENCY SYNDROME (AIDS) EPIDEMIC IN THE UNITED STATES

Ron Brookmeyer, Mitchell H. Gail

Bloomberg School of Public Health

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

164 Scopus citations

Abstract

A new method based on the reported incubation period of transfusion-associated AIDS was used to estimate the number of AIDS cases likely to arise in the USA among those infected before 1986. Between 1986 and 1991 102 000 new cases are projected, with a total cumulative incidence of 135 000 AIDS cases. These estimates do not account for new infections after 1985 nor very long incubation periods and are thus the smallest numbers to be expected. Even if new infections can be effectively prevented, the epidemic will be five times larger than the number of cases observed so far.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	1320-1322
Number of pages	3
Journal	The Lancet
Volume	328
Issue number	8519
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(86)91444-3
State	Published - Dec 6 1986

ASJC Scopus subject areas

General Medicine

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MINIMUM SIZE OF THE ACQUIRED IMMUNODEFICIENCY SYNDROME (AIDS) EPIDEMIC IN THE UNITED STATES

Abstract

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