Metapopulation dynamics enable persistence of influenza A, including A/H5N1, in poultry

Parviez Rana Hosseini, Trevon Fuller, Ryan Harrigan, Delong Zhao, Carmen Sofia Arriola, Armandoe Gonzalez, Matthew Joshua Miller, Xiangming Xiao, Tom B. Smith, Jamie Holland Jones, Peter Daszak

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Highly pathogenic influenza A/H5N1 has persistently but sporadically caused human illness and death since 1997. Yet it is still unclear how this pathogen is able to persist globally. While wild birds seem to be a genetic reservoir for influenza A, they do not seem to be the main source of human illness. Here, we highlight the role that domestic poultry may play in maintaining A/H5N1 globally, using theoretical models of spatial population structure in poultry populations. We find that a metapopulation of moderately sized poultry flocks can sustain the pathogen in a finite poultry population for over two years. Our results suggest that it is possible that moderately intensive backyard farms could sustain the pathogen indefinitely in real systems. This fits a pattern that has been observed from many empirical systems. Rather than just employing standard culling procedures to control the disease, our model suggests ways that poultry production systems may be modified.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere80091
JournalPLoS One
Volume8
Issue number12
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 2 2013
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Poultry
influenza
Human Influenza
poultry
Pathogens
human diseases
pathogens
culling (animals)
disease models
poultry production
Population
wild birds
Birds
flocks
production technology
population structure
Farms
death
Theoretical Models
farms

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)

Cite this

Hosseini, P. R., Fuller, T., Harrigan, R., Zhao, D., Arriola, C. S., Gonzalez, A., ... Daszak, P. (2013). Metapopulation dynamics enable persistence of influenza A, including A/H5N1, in poultry. PLoS One, 8(12), [e80091]. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0080091

Metapopulation dynamics enable persistence of influenza A, including A/H5N1, in poultry. / Hosseini, Parviez Rana; Fuller, Trevon; Harrigan, Ryan; Zhao, Delong; Arriola, Carmen Sofia; Gonzalez, Armandoe; Miller, Matthew Joshua; Xiao, Xiangming; Smith, Tom B.; Jones, Jamie Holland; Daszak, Peter.

In: PLoS One, Vol. 8, No. 12, e80091, 02.12.2013.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Hosseini, PR, Fuller, T, Harrigan, R, Zhao, D, Arriola, CS, Gonzalez, A, Miller, MJ, Xiao, X, Smith, TB, Jones, JH & Daszak, P 2013, 'Metapopulation dynamics enable persistence of influenza A, including A/H5N1, in poultry', PLoS One, vol. 8, no. 12, e80091. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0080091
Hosseini, Parviez Rana ; Fuller, Trevon ; Harrigan, Ryan ; Zhao, Delong ; Arriola, Carmen Sofia ; Gonzalez, Armandoe ; Miller, Matthew Joshua ; Xiao, Xiangming ; Smith, Tom B. ; Jones, Jamie Holland ; Daszak, Peter. / Metapopulation dynamics enable persistence of influenza A, including A/H5N1, in poultry. In: PLoS One. 2013 ; Vol. 8, No. 12.
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