Measuring Coverage in MNCH: Challenges in Monitoring the Proportion of Young Children with Pneumonia Who Receive Antibiotic Treatment

Harry Campbell, Shams el Arifeen, Tabish Hazir, James O'Kelly, Jennifer Bryce, Igor Rudan, Shamim Ahmad Qazi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Pneumonia remains a major cause of child death globally, and improving antibiotic treatment rates is a key control strategy. Progress in improving the global coverage of antibiotic treatment is monitored through large household surveys such as the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), which estimate antibiotic treatment rates of pneumonia based on two-week recall of pneumonia by caregivers. However, these survey tools identify children with reported symptoms of pneumonia, and because the prevalence of pneumonia over a two-week period in community settings is low, the majority of these children do not have true pneumonia and so do not provide an accurate denominator of pneumonia cases for monitoring antibiotic treatment rates. In this review, we show that the performance of survey tools could be improved by increasing the survey recall period or by improving either overall discriminative power or specificity. However, even at a test specificity of 95% (and a test sensitivity of 80%), the proportion of children with reported symptoms of pneumonia who truly have pneumonia is only 22% (the positive predictive value of the survey tool). Thus, although DHS and MICS survey data on rates of care seeking for children with reported symptoms of pneumonia and other childhood illnesses remain valid and important, DHS and MICS data are not able to give valid estimates of antibiotic treatment rates in children with pneumonia.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere1001421
JournalPLoS Medicine
Volume10
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - 2013

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Pneumonia
Anti-Bacterial Agents
Therapeutics
Demography
Surveys and Questionnaires
Child Care
Caregivers
Cause of Death

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine(all)

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Measuring Coverage in MNCH : Challenges in Monitoring the Proportion of Young Children with Pneumonia Who Receive Antibiotic Treatment. / Campbell, Harry; el Arifeen, Shams; Hazir, Tabish; O'Kelly, James; Bryce, Jennifer; Rudan, Igor; Qazi, Shamim Ahmad.

In: PLoS Medicine, Vol. 10, No. 5, e1001421, 2013.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Campbell, Harry ; el Arifeen, Shams ; Hazir, Tabish ; O'Kelly, James ; Bryce, Jennifer ; Rudan, Igor ; Qazi, Shamim Ahmad. / Measuring Coverage in MNCH : Challenges in Monitoring the Proportion of Young Children with Pneumonia Who Receive Antibiotic Treatment. In: PLoS Medicine. 2013 ; Vol. 10, No. 5.
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