Longitudinal Prediction of Transplant-Free Survival by Echocardiography in Pediatric Dilated Cardiomyopathy

Background: The prognostic significance of serial echocardiography and its rate of change in children with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is incompletely defined. Methods: We retrospectively analysed up to 4 serial echocardiograms. Associations between mortality/transplant and echocardiographic parameters over time and between outcomes and the rate of change of echocardiographic parameters were analysed. Estimation of patient-specific intercepts and slopes was done using linear regression models. Results: Fifty-seven DCM children were studied (50% male; median age, 0.6 year; average follow-up, 2.1 ± 2.4 years). The median time to transplant or death was 2.0 years. Increased left ventricular (LV) diastolic (LVEDD) and systolic (LVESD) dimensions and myocardial performance index (MPI) were associated with increased mortality and transplant risk. Increased LV ejection fraction, mitral E-deceleration time, right ventricular (RV) fractional area change, and tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion were associated with reduced mortality and transplant risk. Transplant/mortality likelihood increased by 41.6% and 19.8% for each unit increase in LVEDD and LVESD z scores, respectively (LVEDD: hazard ratio [HR], 1.416; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.285-1.560; P < 0.001; LVESD: HR, 1.198; 95% CI, 1.147-1.251; P < 0.001). A higher monthly change in LVESD z score increased transplant/mortality likelihood by 85.6% (HR, 1.856; 95% CI, 1.572-2.191; P = 0.015). Greater changes in mitral E/eʹ (HR, 0.707; 95% CI, 0.636-0.786; P < 0.001) and RV MPI (HR, 0.412; 95% CI, 0.277-0.613; P < 0.001) were associated with reduced mortality and transplant risk. Conclusions: LV and RV systolic and diastolic dimensions and function over time and their rate of change are associated with risk for transplant and mortality in childhood DCM. Serial changes in these parameters may be useful to predict clinical outcomes.