Longitudinal paths to the metabolic syndrome: Can the incidence of the metabolic syndrome be predicted? The Baltimore longitudinal study of aging

Angelo Scuteri, Christopher H. Morrell, Samer S. Najjar, Denis Muller, Reubin Andres, Luigi Ferrucci, Edward Lakatta

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Objective. To determine the predictors of incidence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) (Adult Treatment Panel III criteria) and to determine if longitudinal changes in specific MetS components differ by age or gender in participants who developed versus those who did not develop MetS. Methods. A total of 506 men and 461 women (baseline age 52.4 ± 17.5 years) from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging (BLSA) were followed longitudinally (at least two study visits), and censored when they developed the MetS or reported use of antihypertensive or lipid-lowering medications. Results. After a follow-up period of 6 years, the incidence of the MetS was 25.5% in men and 14.8% in women. As many as 66% of men and 73% of women with one or two altered MetS components at baseline did not develop the MetS. Predictors of developing MetS were higher baseline abdominal obesity or triglycerides and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (area under receiver-operated curve [AUC] = 0.84 in men, 0.88 in women). Addition of the rate of changes in MetS components over time slightly improved predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.94 in men, 0.92 in women). Men were more likely than women to have the MetS without obesity, whereas women were more likely than men to have the MetS without an altered glucose metabolism. Conclusions. The patterns of MetS components and the longitudinal changes that lead to the MetS are different in men and women. Interestingly, components with the highest prevalence prior to MetS development, such as elevated blood pressure, are not necessarily the stronger risk factors.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)590-598
Number of pages9
JournalJournals of Gerontology - Series A Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences
Volume64
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - May 2009
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Baltimore
Longitudinal Studies
Incidence
Area Under Curve
Abdominal Obesity
HDL Cholesterol
Antihypertensive Agents

Keywords

  • Abdominal obesity
  • Incidence
  • Longitudinal studies
  • Metabolic syndrome

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Aging
  • Geriatrics and Gerontology
  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

Longitudinal paths to the metabolic syndrome : Can the incidence of the metabolic syndrome be predicted? The Baltimore longitudinal study of aging. / Scuteri, Angelo; Morrell, Christopher H.; Najjar, Samer S.; Muller, Denis; Andres, Reubin; Ferrucci, Luigi; Lakatta, Edward.

In: Journals of Gerontology - Series A Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences, Vol. 64, No. 5, 05.2009, p. 590-598.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{11d3f926e1074257b2f05efc853bf63e,
title = "Longitudinal paths to the metabolic syndrome: Can the incidence of the metabolic syndrome be predicted? The Baltimore longitudinal study of aging",
abstract = "Objective. To determine the predictors of incidence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) (Adult Treatment Panel III criteria) and to determine if longitudinal changes in specific MetS components differ by age or gender in participants who developed versus those who did not develop MetS. Methods. A total of 506 men and 461 women (baseline age 52.4 ± 17.5 years) from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging (BLSA) were followed longitudinally (at least two study visits), and censored when they developed the MetS or reported use of antihypertensive or lipid-lowering medications. Results. After a follow-up period of 6 years, the incidence of the MetS was 25.5{\%} in men and 14.8{\%} in women. As many as 66{\%} of men and 73{\%} of women with one or two altered MetS components at baseline did not develop the MetS. Predictors of developing MetS were higher baseline abdominal obesity or triglycerides and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (area under receiver-operated curve [AUC] = 0.84 in men, 0.88 in women). Addition of the rate of changes in MetS components over time slightly improved predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.94 in men, 0.92 in women). Men were more likely than women to have the MetS without obesity, whereas women were more likely than men to have the MetS without an altered glucose metabolism. Conclusions. The patterns of MetS components and the longitudinal changes that lead to the MetS are different in men and women. Interestingly, components with the highest prevalence prior to MetS development, such as elevated blood pressure, are not necessarily the stronger risk factors.",
keywords = "Abdominal obesity, Incidence, Longitudinal studies, Metabolic syndrome",
author = "Angelo Scuteri and Morrell, {Christopher H.} and Najjar, {Samer S.} and Denis Muller and Reubin Andres and Luigi Ferrucci and Edward Lakatta",
year = "2009",
month = "5",
doi = "10.1093/gerona/glp004",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "64",
pages = "590--598",
journal = "Journals of Gerontology - Series A Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences",
issn = "1079-5006",
publisher = "Oxford University Press",
number = "5",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Longitudinal paths to the metabolic syndrome

T2 - Can the incidence of the metabolic syndrome be predicted? The Baltimore longitudinal study of aging

AU - Scuteri, Angelo

AU - Morrell, Christopher H.

AU - Najjar, Samer S.

AU - Muller, Denis

AU - Andres, Reubin

AU - Ferrucci, Luigi

AU - Lakatta, Edward

PY - 2009/5

Y1 - 2009/5

N2 - Objective. To determine the predictors of incidence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) (Adult Treatment Panel III criteria) and to determine if longitudinal changes in specific MetS components differ by age or gender in participants who developed versus those who did not develop MetS. Methods. A total of 506 men and 461 women (baseline age 52.4 ± 17.5 years) from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging (BLSA) were followed longitudinally (at least two study visits), and censored when they developed the MetS or reported use of antihypertensive or lipid-lowering medications. Results. After a follow-up period of 6 years, the incidence of the MetS was 25.5% in men and 14.8% in women. As many as 66% of men and 73% of women with one or two altered MetS components at baseline did not develop the MetS. Predictors of developing MetS were higher baseline abdominal obesity or triglycerides and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (area under receiver-operated curve [AUC] = 0.84 in men, 0.88 in women). Addition of the rate of changes in MetS components over time slightly improved predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.94 in men, 0.92 in women). Men were more likely than women to have the MetS without obesity, whereas women were more likely than men to have the MetS without an altered glucose metabolism. Conclusions. The patterns of MetS components and the longitudinal changes that lead to the MetS are different in men and women. Interestingly, components with the highest prevalence prior to MetS development, such as elevated blood pressure, are not necessarily the stronger risk factors.

AB - Objective. To determine the predictors of incidence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) (Adult Treatment Panel III criteria) and to determine if longitudinal changes in specific MetS components differ by age or gender in participants who developed versus those who did not develop MetS. Methods. A total of 506 men and 461 women (baseline age 52.4 ± 17.5 years) from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging (BLSA) were followed longitudinally (at least two study visits), and censored when they developed the MetS or reported use of antihypertensive or lipid-lowering medications. Results. After a follow-up period of 6 years, the incidence of the MetS was 25.5% in men and 14.8% in women. As many as 66% of men and 73% of women with one or two altered MetS components at baseline did not develop the MetS. Predictors of developing MetS were higher baseline abdominal obesity or triglycerides and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (area under receiver-operated curve [AUC] = 0.84 in men, 0.88 in women). Addition of the rate of changes in MetS components over time slightly improved predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.94 in men, 0.92 in women). Men were more likely than women to have the MetS without obesity, whereas women were more likely than men to have the MetS without an altered glucose metabolism. Conclusions. The patterns of MetS components and the longitudinal changes that lead to the MetS are different in men and women. Interestingly, components with the highest prevalence prior to MetS development, such as elevated blood pressure, are not necessarily the stronger risk factors.

KW - Abdominal obesity

KW - Incidence

KW - Longitudinal studies

KW - Metabolic syndrome

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=65549159948&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=65549159948&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1093/gerona/glp004

DO - 10.1093/gerona/glp004

M3 - Article

C2 - 19270183

AN - SCOPUS:65549159948

VL - 64

SP - 590

EP - 598

JO - Journals of Gerontology - Series A Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences

JF - Journals of Gerontology - Series A Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences

SN - 1079-5006

IS - 5

ER -