Abstract
Background and objectives: Whereas current GFR estimating equations approximate direct GFR measurement at a single time point, formulas that capitalize on changes in easily measured biologic parameters could improve the accuracy and precision of GFR estimation. Design, setting, participants, & measurements: In the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children Cohort (aged 1 to 16 yr), we measured GFR by plasma disappearance of iohexol (iGFR) and biomarkers in the first two annual visits. Models took the form GFR2 = a[GFR 1/40]b[X2/X1]c, where GFR2 and GFR1 represented the current and previous years' iGFR, 40 ml/min per 1.73 m2 was the cohort mean, and X 2/X1 was the change in predictors over time. Using data from 360 participants with a median age of 12.1 yr, we evaluated the predictive performance of a past GFR measurement and 20 other variables using a two-thirds random sample of the data. A one-third sample was reserved for validation. Results: Previous iGFR measurements were strongly predictive of subsequent iGFR and adding change in height/serum creatinine significantly improved the explanatory power to 78%. In the validation set, the correlation between estimated and measured GFR was 0.88, and 48 and 88% of estimated GFRs were within 10 and 30% of observed iGFRs. When the past GFR measurement was not used, addition of change in markers to a cross-sectional model did not improve prediction. Conclusions: Longitudinal formulas to estimate iGFR capitalize on the high predictive power of previous iGFR measurements and in this study yielded a parsimonious prediction model with the potential for assessing progression in the clinical setting.
Original language | English (US) |
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Pages (from-to) | 1724-1730 |
Number of pages | 7 |
Journal | Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology |
Volume | 4 |
Issue number | 11 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - 2009 |
Externally published | Yes |
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Epidemiology
- Critical Care and Intensive Care Medicine
- Nephrology
- Transplantation