Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-covid-19 world

Jaspreet Toor; Susy Echeverria-Londono; Xiang Li; Kaja Abbas; Emily D. Carter; Hannah E. Clapham; Andrew Clark; Margaret J. de Villiers; Kirsten Eilertson; Matthew Ferrari; Ivane Gamkrelidze; Timothy B. Hallett; Wes R. Hinsley; Daniel Hogan; John H. Huber; Michael L. Jackson; Kevin Jean; Mark Jit; Andromachi Karachaliou; Petra Klepac; Alicia Kraay; Justin Lessler; Xi Li; Benjamin A. Lopman; Tewodaj Mengistu; C. Jessica E. Metcalf; Sean M. Moore; Shevanthi Nayagam; Timos Papadopoulos; T. Alex Perkins; Allison Portnoy; Homie Razavi; Devin Razavi-Shearer; Stephen Resch; Colin Sanderson; Steven Sweet; Yvonne Tam; Hira Tanvir; Quan Tran Minh; Caroline L. Trotter; Shaun A. Truelove; Emilia Vynnycky; Neff Walker; Amy Winter; Kim Woodruff; Neil M. Ferguson; Katy A.M. Gaythorpe

doi:10.7554/eLife.67635

Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-covid-19 world

Jaspreet Toor, Susy Echeverria-Londono, Xiang Li, Kaja Abbas, Emily D. Carter, Hannah E. Clapham, Andrew Clark, Margaret J. de Villiers, Kirsten Eilertson, Matthew Ferrari, Ivane Gamkrelidze, Timothy B. Hallett, Wes R. Hinsley, Daniel Hogan, John H. Huber, Michael L. Jackson, Kevin Jean, Mark Jit, Andromachi Karachaliou, Petra KlepacAlicia Kraay, Justin Lessler, Xi Li, Benjamin A. Lopman, Tewodaj Mengistu, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Sean M. Moore, Shevanthi Nayagam, Timos Papadopoulos, T. Alex Perkins, Allison Portnoy, Homie Razavi, Devin Razavi-Shearer, Stephen Resch, Colin Sanderson, Steven Sweet, Yvonne Tam, Hira Tanvir, Quan Tran Minh, Caroline L. Trotter, Shaun A. Truelove, Emilia Vynnycky, Neff Walker, Amy Winter, Kim Woodruff, Neil M. Ferguson, Katy A.M. Gaythorpe

Bloomberg School of Public Health

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Background: Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000–2030 across 112 countries. Methods: Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios. Results: We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000–2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases. Conclusions: This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	e67635
Journal	eLife
Volume	10
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.67635
State	Published - Jul 2021

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Neuroscience(all)
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
Immunology and Microbiology(all)

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10.7554/eLife.67635

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Toor, J., Echeverria-Londono, S., Li, X., Abbas, K., Carter, E. D., Clapham, H. E., Clark, A., de Villiers, M. J., Eilertson, K., Ferrari, M., Gamkrelidze, I., Hallett, T. B., Hinsley, W. R., Hogan, D., Huber, J. H., Jackson, M. L., Jean, K., Jit, M., Karachaliou, A., ... Gaythorpe, K. A. M. (2021). Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-covid-19 world. eLife, 10, [e67635]. https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.67635

Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-covid-19 world. / Toor, Jaspreet; Echeverria-Londono, Susy; Li, Xiang; Abbas, Kaja; Carter, Emily D.; Clapham, Hannah E.; Clark, Andrew; de Villiers, Margaret J.; Eilertson, Kirsten; Ferrari, Matthew; Gamkrelidze, Ivane; Hallett, Timothy B.; Hinsley, Wes R.; Hogan, Daniel; Huber, John H.; Jackson, Michael L.; Jean, Kevin; Jit, Mark; Karachaliou, Andromachi; Klepac, Petra; Kraay, Alicia; Lessler, Justin; Li, Xi; Lopman, Benjamin A.; Mengistu, Tewodaj; Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Moore, Sean M.; Nayagam, Shevanthi; Papadopoulos, Timos; Perkins, T. Alex; Portnoy, Allison; Razavi, Homie; Razavi-Shearer, Devin; Resch, Stephen; Sanderson, Colin; Sweet, Steven; Tam, Yvonne; Tanvir, Hira; Minh, Quan Tran; Trotter, Caroline L.; Truelove, Shaun A.; Vynnycky, Emilia; Walker, Neff; Winter, Amy; Woodruff, Kim; Ferguson, Neil M.; Gaythorpe, Katy A.M.

In: eLife, Vol. 10, e67635, 07.2021.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Toor, J, Echeverria-Londono, S, Li, X, Abbas, K, Carter, ED, Clapham, HE, Clark, A, de Villiers, MJ, Eilertson, K, Ferrari, M, Gamkrelidze, I, Hallett, TB, Hinsley, WR, Hogan, D, Huber, JH, Jackson, ML, Jean, K, Jit, M, Karachaliou, A, Klepac, P, Kraay, A, Lessler, J, Li, X, Lopman, BA, Mengistu, T, Metcalf, CJE, Moore, SM, Nayagam, S, Papadopoulos, T, Perkins, TA, Portnoy, A, Razavi, H, Razavi-Shearer, D, Resch, S, Sanderson, C, Sweet, S, Tam, Y, Tanvir, H, Minh, QT, Trotter, CL, Truelove, SA, Vynnycky, E, Walker, N, Winter, A, Woodruff, K, Ferguson, NM & Gaythorpe, KAM 2021, 'Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-covid-19 world', eLife, vol. 10, e67635. https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.67635

Toor, Jaspreet ; Echeverria-Londono, Susy ; Li, Xiang ; Abbas, Kaja ; Carter, Emily D. ; Clapham, Hannah E. ; Clark, Andrew ; de Villiers, Margaret J. ; Eilertson, Kirsten ; Ferrari, Matthew ; Gamkrelidze, Ivane ; Hallett, Timothy B. ; Hinsley, Wes R. ; Hogan, Daniel ; Huber, John H. ; Jackson, Michael L. ; Jean, Kevin ; Jit, Mark ; Karachaliou, Andromachi ; Klepac, Petra ; Kraay, Alicia ; Lessler, Justin ; Li, Xi ; Lopman, Benjamin A. ; Mengistu, Tewodaj ; Metcalf, C. Jessica E. ; Moore, Sean M. ; Nayagam, Shevanthi ; Papadopoulos, Timos ; Perkins, T. Alex ; Portnoy, Allison ; Razavi, Homie ; Razavi-Shearer, Devin ; Resch, Stephen ; Sanderson, Colin ; Sweet, Steven ; Tam, Yvonne ; Tanvir, Hira ; Minh, Quan Tran ; Trotter, Caroline L. ; Truelove, Shaun A. ; Vynnycky, Emilia ; Walker, Neff ; Winter, Amy ; Woodruff, Kim ; Ferguson, Neil M. ; Gaythorpe, Katy A.M. / Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-covid-19 world. In: eLife. 2021 ; Vol. 10.

@article{301ff32d9fc24c75b3ebf374a7d335cc,

title = "Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-covid-19 world",

abstract = "Background: Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000–2030 across 112 countries. Methods: Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios. Results: We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000–2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases. Conclusions: This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.",

author = "Jaspreet Toor and Susy Echeverria-Londono and Xiang Li and Kaja Abbas and Carter, {Emily D.} and Clapham, {Hannah E.} and Andrew Clark and {de Villiers}, {Margaret J.} and Kirsten Eilertson and Matthew Ferrari and Ivane Gamkrelidze and Hallett, {Timothy B.} and Hinsley, {Wes R.} and Daniel Hogan and Huber, {John H.} and Jackson, {Michael L.} and Kevin Jean and Mark Jit and Andromachi Karachaliou and Petra Klepac and Alicia Kraay and Justin Lessler and Xi Li and Lopman, {Benjamin A.} and Tewodaj Mengistu and Metcalf, {C. Jessica E.} and Moore, {Sean M.} and Shevanthi Nayagam and Timos Papadopoulos and Perkins, {T. Alex} and Allison Portnoy and Homie Razavi and Devin Razavi-Shearer and Stephen Resch and Colin Sanderson and Steven Sweet and Yvonne Tam and Hira Tanvir and Minh, {Quan Tran} and Trotter, {Caroline L.} and Truelove, {Shaun A.} and Emilia Vynnycky and Neff Walker and Amy Winter and Kim Woodruff and Ferguson, {Neil M.} and Gaythorpe, {Katy A.M.}",

note = "Funding Information: This publication is authored by members of the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC, www.vaccineimpact.org). VIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and by the Bill Melinda Gates Foundation. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Consortium or its funders. The funders were given the opportunity to review this paper prior to publication, but the final decision on the content of the publication was taken by the authors. Consortium members received funding from Gavi and BMGF via VIMC during the course of the study. Funding Information: Mark Jit: Reviewing editor, eLife. Michael L Jackson: MLJ has received research funding from Sanofi Pasteur unrelated to the present work. Benjamin A Lopman: BAL reports grants and personal fees from Takeda Pharmaceuticals, personal fees from World Health Organization, outside the submitted work. T Alex Perkins: TAP receives support from Emergent Biosolutions for work unrelated to his contribution to this study. Homie Razavi: HR is an employee of Center for Disease Analysis Foundation which has received grants from Gilead Sciences, AbbVie, Zeshan Foundation and EndHep2030 fund for projects unrelated to this work; HBV epidemiology data was funded by a grant from John Martin Foundation (Grant number 24). Caroline L Trotter: CLT received a consulting payment from GSK in 2018 (outside the submitted work). The other authors declare that no competing interests exist. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} Toor et al.",

year = "2021",

month = jul,

doi = "10.7554/eLife.67635",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "10",

journal = "eLife",

issn = "2050-084X",

publisher = "eLife Sciences Publications",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-covid-19 world

AU - Toor, Jaspreet

AU - Echeverria-Londono, Susy

AU - Li, Xiang

AU - Abbas, Kaja

AU - Carter, Emily D.

AU - Clapham, Hannah E.

AU - Clark, Andrew

AU - de Villiers, Margaret J.

AU - Eilertson, Kirsten

AU - Ferrari, Matthew

AU - Gamkrelidze, Ivane

AU - Hallett, Timothy B.

AU - Hinsley, Wes R.

AU - Hogan, Daniel

AU - Huber, John H.

AU - Jackson, Michael L.

AU - Jean, Kevin

AU - Jit, Mark

AU - Karachaliou, Andromachi

AU - Klepac, Petra

AU - Kraay, Alicia

AU - Lessler, Justin

AU - Li, Xi

AU - Lopman, Benjamin A.

AU - Mengistu, Tewodaj

AU - Metcalf, C. Jessica E.

AU - Moore, Sean M.

AU - Nayagam, Shevanthi

AU - Papadopoulos, Timos

AU - Perkins, T. Alex

AU - Portnoy, Allison

AU - Razavi, Homie

AU - Razavi-Shearer, Devin

AU - Resch, Stephen

AU - Sanderson, Colin

AU - Sweet, Steven

AU - Tam, Yvonne

AU - Tanvir, Hira

AU - Minh, Quan Tran

AU - Trotter, Caroline L.

AU - Truelove, Shaun A.

AU - Vynnycky, Emilia

AU - Walker, Neff

AU - Winter, Amy

AU - Woodruff, Kim

AU - Ferguson, Neil M.

AU - Gaythorpe, Katy A.M.

N1 - Funding Information: This publication is authored by members of the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC, www.vaccineimpact.org). VIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and by the Bill Melinda Gates Foundation. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Consortium or its funders. The funders were given the opportunity to review this paper prior to publication, but the final decision on the content of the publication was taken by the authors. Consortium members received funding from Gavi and BMGF via VIMC during the course of the study. Funding Information: Mark Jit: Reviewing editor, eLife. Michael L Jackson: MLJ has received research funding from Sanofi Pasteur unrelated to the present work. Benjamin A Lopman: BAL reports grants and personal fees from Takeda Pharmaceuticals, personal fees from World Health Organization, outside the submitted work. T Alex Perkins: TAP receives support from Emergent Biosolutions for work unrelated to his contribution to this study. Homie Razavi: HR is an employee of Center for Disease Analysis Foundation which has received grants from Gilead Sciences, AbbVie, Zeshan Foundation and EndHep2030 fund for projects unrelated to this work; HBV epidemiology data was funded by a grant from John Martin Foundation (Grant number 24). Caroline L Trotter: CLT received a consulting payment from GSK in 2018 (outside the submitted work). The other authors declare that no competing interests exist. Publisher Copyright: © Toor et al.

PY - 2021/7

Y1 - 2021/7

N2 - Background: Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000–2030 across 112 countries. Methods: Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios. Results: We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000–2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases. Conclusions: This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.

AB - Background: Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000–2030 across 112 countries. Methods: Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios. Results: We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000–2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases. Conclusions: This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.

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JF - eLife

SN - 2050-084X

M1 - e67635

ER -

Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-covid-19 world

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