TY - JOUR
T1 - Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-covid-19 world
AU - Toor, Jaspreet
AU - Echeverria-Londono, Susy
AU - Li, Xiang
AU - Abbas, Kaja
AU - Carter, Emily D.
AU - Clapham, Hannah E.
AU - Clark, Andrew
AU - de Villiers, Margaret J.
AU - Eilertson, Kirsten
AU - Ferrari, Matthew
AU - Gamkrelidze, Ivane
AU - Hallett, Timothy B.
AU - Hinsley, Wes R.
AU - Hogan, Daniel
AU - Huber, John H.
AU - Jackson, Michael L.
AU - Jean, Kevin
AU - Jit, Mark
AU - Karachaliou, Andromachi
AU - Klepac, Petra
AU - Kraay, Alicia
AU - Lessler, Justin
AU - Li, Xi
AU - Lopman, Benjamin A.
AU - Mengistu, Tewodaj
AU - Metcalf, C. Jessica E.
AU - Moore, Sean M.
AU - Nayagam, Shevanthi
AU - Papadopoulos, Timos
AU - Perkins, T. Alex
AU - Portnoy, Allison
AU - Razavi, Homie
AU - Razavi-Shearer, Devin
AU - Resch, Stephen
AU - Sanderson, Colin
AU - Sweet, Steven
AU - Tam, Yvonne
AU - Tanvir, Hira
AU - Minh, Quan Tran
AU - Trotter, Caroline L.
AU - Truelove, Shaun A.
AU - Vynnycky, Emilia
AU - Walker, Neff
AU - Winter, Amy
AU - Woodruff, Kim
AU - Ferguson, Neil M.
AU - Gaythorpe, Katy A.M.
N1 - Funding Information:
This publication is authored by members of the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC, www.vaccineimpact.org). VIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and by the Bill Melinda Gates Foundation. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Consortium or its funders. The funders were given the opportunity to review this paper prior to publication, but the final decision on the content of the publication was taken by the authors. Consortium members received funding from Gavi and BMGF via VIMC during the course of the study.
Publisher Copyright:
© Toor et al.
PY - 2021/7
Y1 - 2021/7
N2 - Background: Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000–2030 across 112 countries. Methods: Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios. Results: We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000–2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases. Conclusions: This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.
AB - Background: Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000–2030 across 112 countries. Methods: Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios. Results: We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000–2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases. Conclusions: This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.
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U2 - 10.7554/eLife.67635
DO - 10.7554/eLife.67635
M3 - Article
C2 - 34253291
AN - SCOPUS:85111440265
VL - 10
JO - eLife
JF - eLife
SN - 2050-084X
M1 - e67635
ER -