Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: Lessons for transmission to humans

Arnaud Le Menach; Elisabeta Vergu; Rebecca F. Grais; David L. Smith; Antoine Flahault

doi:10.1098/rspb.2006.3609

Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: Lessons for transmission to humans

Arnaud Le Menach, Elisabeta Vergu, Rebecca F. Grais, David L. Smith, Antoine Flahault

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

53 Scopus citations

Abstract

Recent avian flu epidemics (A/H5N1) in Southeast Asia and case reports from around the world have led to fears of a human pandemic. Control of these outbreaks in birds would probably lead to reduced transmission of the avian virus to humans. This study presents a mathematical model based on stochastic farm-to-farm transmission that incorporates flock size and spatial contacts to evaluate the impact of control strategies. Fit to data from the recent epidemic in the Netherlands, we evaluate the efficacy of control strategies and forecast avian influenza dynamics. Our results identify high-risk areas of spread by mapping of the farm level reproductive number. Results suggest that an immediate depopulation of infected flocks following an accurate and quick diagnosis would have a greater impact than simply depopulating surrounding flocks. Understanding the relative importance of different control measures is essential for response planning.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	2467-2475
Number of pages	9
Journal	Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Volume	273
Issue number	1600
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2006.3609
State	Published - Oct 7 2006
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Avian influenza
Epidemiology
Mathematical model
Netherlands
Prevention and control

ASJC Scopus subject areas

General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
General Immunology and Microbiology
General Environmental Science
General Agricultural and Biological Sciences

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title = "Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: Lessons for transmission to humans",

abstract = "Recent avian flu epidemics (A/H5N1) in Southeast Asia and case reports from around the world have led to fears of a human pandemic. Control of these outbreaks in birds would probably lead to reduced transmission of the avian virus to humans. This study presents a mathematical model based on stochastic farm-to-farm transmission that incorporates flock size and spatial contacts to evaluate the impact of control strategies. Fit to data from the recent epidemic in the Netherlands, we evaluate the efficacy of control strategies and forecast avian influenza dynamics. Our results identify high-risk areas of spread by mapping of the farm level reproductive number. Results suggest that an immediate depopulation of infected flocks following an accurate and quick diagnosis would have a greater impact than simply depopulating surrounding flocks. Understanding the relative importance of different control measures is essential for response planning.",

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T2 - Lessons for transmission to humans

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AU - Vergu, Elisabeta

AU - Grais, Rebecca F.

AU - Smith, David L.

AU - Flahault, Antoine

PY - 2006/10/7

Y1 - 2006/10/7

N2 - Recent avian flu epidemics (A/H5N1) in Southeast Asia and case reports from around the world have led to fears of a human pandemic. Control of these outbreaks in birds would probably lead to reduced transmission of the avian virus to humans. This study presents a mathematical model based on stochastic farm-to-farm transmission that incorporates flock size and spatial contacts to evaluate the impact of control strategies. Fit to data from the recent epidemic in the Netherlands, we evaluate the efficacy of control strategies and forecast avian influenza dynamics. Our results identify high-risk areas of spread by mapping of the farm level reproductive number. Results suggest that an immediate depopulation of infected flocks following an accurate and quick diagnosis would have a greater impact than simply depopulating surrounding flocks. Understanding the relative importance of different control measures is essential for response planning.

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Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: Lessons for transmission to humans

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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