Is the decline of active travel to school unavoidable by-products of economic growth and urbanization in developing countries?

Yong Yang, Hong Xue, Shiyong Liu, Youfa Wang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Background: Economic growth and urbanization may contribute to the decline of active travel to school (ATS). We aim to explain the change of ATS in China between 1997 and 2011 and to predict the prevalence of ATS in China within the next 30 years using various scenario. Methods: We developed a system dynamics model to study ATS and the model assumes the prevalence of ATS is determined by the dynamic interaction of four exogenous and eight endogenous variables. Results: The simulated prevalence of ATS is roughly consistent with empirical data. Economic development and urban sprawl are more influential than urban design and crime in terms of ATS. Under a relatively reasonable scenario, the prevalence of ATS is projected to decrease from 73% in 2011 to 65% in 2014, and the prevalence of childhood overweight & obesity is projected to increase from 24% in 2011 to 34% in 2041. With the maintaining of economic development grow, to control urban sprawl is the most effective measure to promote ATS and decrease childhood obesity. Conclusions: Overall, the model enabled us to conduct experiments to test the possible effects of changing one or more factors taking into account their dynamic interrelationship, and our study may provide implications for policy intervention.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number101446
JournalSustainable Cities and Society
Volume47
DOIs
StatePublished - May 2019

Keywords

  • Active travel to school (ATS)
  • Children
  • China
  • Economic growth
  • Urbanization

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Transportation

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Is the decline of active travel to school unavoidable by-products of economic growth and urbanization in developing countries?'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this