Intermediate and longer-term outcomes from a prospective active-surveillance program for favorable-risk prostate cancer

Jeffrey J. Tosoian, Mufaddal Mamawala, Jonathan I. Epstein, Patricia Landis, Sacha Wolf, Bruce J. Trock, H. Ballentine Carter

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Purpose: To assess long-term outcomes of men with favorable-risk prostate cancer in a prospective, active-surveillance program. Methods: Curative intervention was recommended for disease reclassification to higher cancer grade or volume on prostate biopsy. Primary outcomes were overall, cancer-specific, and metastasis-free survival. Secondary outcomes were the cumulative incidence of reclassification and curative intervention. Factors associated with grade reclassification and curative intervention were evaluated in a Cox proportional hazards model. Results: A total of 1,298 men (median age, 66 years) with a median follow-up of 5 years (range, 0.01 to 18.00 years) contributed 6,766 person-years of follow-up since 1995. Overall, cancer-specific, and metastasis-free survival rates were 93%, 99.9%, and 99.4%, respectively, at 10 years and 69%, 99.9%, and 99.4%, respectively, at 15 years. The cumulative incidence of grade reclassification was 26% at 10 years and was 31% at 15 years; cumulative incidence of curative intervention was 50% at 10 years and was 57% at 15 years. The median treatment-free survival was 8.5 years (range, 0.01 to 18 years). Factors associated with grade reclassification were older age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03 for each additional year; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.06), prostate-specific antigen density (HR, 1.21 per 0.1 unit increase; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.46), and greater number of positive biopsy cores (HR, 1.47 for each additional positive core; 95% CI, 1.26 to 1.69). Factors associated with intervention were prostate-specific antigen density (HR, 1.38 per 0.1 unit increase; 95% CI, 1.22 to 1.56) and a greater number of positive biopsy cores (HR, 1.35 for one additional positive core; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.53). Conclusion: Men with favorable-risk prostate cancer should be informed of the low likelihood of harm from their diagnosis and should be encouraged to consider surveillance rather than curative intervention.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)3379-3385
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of Clinical Oncology
Volume33
Issue number30
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 20 2015

    Fingerprint

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oncology
  • Cancer Research

Cite this