Influence of serosorting and intervention-mediated changes in serosorting on the population-level HIV transmission impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men: A mathematical modelling study

Linwei Wang; Nasheed Moqueet; Anna Simkin; Jesse Knight; Huiting Ma; Nathan J. Lachowsky; Heather L. Armstrong; Darrell H.S. Tan; Ann N. Burchell; Trevor A. Hart; David M. Moore; Barry D. Adam; Derek R. MacFadden; Stefan Baral; Sharmistha Mishra

doi:10.1101/2020.02.26.20025700

Influence of serosorting and intervention-mediated changes in serosorting on the population-level HIV transmission impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men: A mathematical modelling study

Linwei Wang, Nasheed Moqueet, Anna Simkin, Jesse Knight, Huiting Ma, Nathan J. Lachowsky, Heather L. Armstrong, Darrell H.S. Tan, Ann N. Burchell, Trevor A. Hart, David M. Moore, Barry D. Adam, Derek R. MacFadden, Stefan Baral, Sharmistha Mishra

Bloomberg School of Public Health

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Background: HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) may change serosorting patterns. We examined the influence of serosorting on the population-level HIV transmission impact of PrEP, and how impact could change if PrEP users stopped serosorting. Methods: We developed a compartmental HIV transmission model parameterized with bio-behavioural and HIV surveillance data among men who have sex with men in Canada. We separately fit the model with serosorting and without serosorting (random partner-selection proportional to availability by HIV-status (sero-proportionate)), and reproduced stable HIV epidemics (2013-2018) with HIV-prevalence 10.3%-24.8%, undiagnosed fraction 4.9%-15.8%, and treatment coverage 82.5%-88.4%. We simulated PrEP-intervention reaching stable coverage by year-1 and compared absolute difference in relative HIV-incidence reduction 10-year post-intervention (PrEP-impact) between: models with serosorting vs. sero-proportionate mixing; and scenarios in which PrEP users stopped vs. continued serosorting. We examined sensitivity of results to PrEP-effectiveness (44%-99%) and coverage (10%-50%). Findings: Models with serosorting predicted a larger PrEP-impact compared with models with sero-proportionate mixing under all PrEP-effectiveness and coverage assumptions (median (inter-quartile-range): 8.1%(5.5%-11.6%)). PrEP users’ stopping serosorting reduced PrEP-impact compared with when PrEP users continued serosorting: reductions in PrEP-impact were minimal (2.1%(1.4%-3.4%)) under high PrEP-effectiveness (86%-99%); however, could be considerable (10.9%(8.2%-14.1%)) under low PrEP effectiveness (44%) and high coverage (30%-50%). Interpretation: Models assuming sero-proportionate mixing may underestimate population-level HIV-incidence reductions due to PrEP. PrEP-mediated changes in serosorting could lead to programmatically-important reductions in PrEP-impact under low PrEP-effectiveness (e.g. poor adherence/retention). Our findings suggest the need to monitor sexual mixing patterns to inform PrEP implementation and evaluation. Funding: Canadian Institutes of Health Research

Original language	English (US)
Journal	Unknown Journal
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.26.20025700
State	Published - Feb 26 2020

Keywords

HIV
Men who have sex with men
Pre-exposure prophylaxis
Serosorting
Sexual mixing patterns

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Medicine(all)

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Wang, L., Moqueet, N., Simkin, A., Knight, J., Ma, H., Lachowsky, N. J., Armstrong, H. L., Tan, D. H. S., Burchell, A. N., Hart, T. A., Moore, D. M., Adam, B. D., MacFadden, D. R., Baral, S., & Mishra, S. (2020). Influence of serosorting and intervention-mediated changes in serosorting on the population-level HIV transmission impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men: A mathematical modelling study. Unknown Journal. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.26.20025700

Influence of serosorting and intervention-mediated changes in serosorting on the population-level HIV transmission impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men : A mathematical modelling study. / Wang, Linwei; Moqueet, Nasheed; Simkin, Anna; Knight, Jesse; Ma, Huiting; Lachowsky, Nathan J.; Armstrong, Heather L.; Tan, Darrell H.S.; Burchell, Ann N.; Hart, Trevor A.; Moore, David M.; Adam, Barry D.; MacFadden, Derek R.; Baral, Stefan; Mishra, Sharmistha.

In: Unknown Journal, 26.02.2020.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Wang, L, Moqueet, N, Simkin, A, Knight, J, Ma, H, Lachowsky, NJ, Armstrong, HL, Tan, DHS, Burchell, AN, Hart, TA, Moore, DM, Adam, BD, MacFadden, DR, Baral, S & Mishra, S 2020, 'Influence of serosorting and intervention-mediated changes in serosorting on the population-level HIV transmission impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men: A mathematical modelling study', Unknown Journal. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.26.20025700

Wang, Linwei ; Moqueet, Nasheed ; Simkin, Anna ; Knight, Jesse ; Ma, Huiting ; Lachowsky, Nathan J. ; Armstrong, Heather L. ; Tan, Darrell H.S. ; Burchell, Ann N. ; Hart, Trevor A. ; Moore, David M. ; Adam, Barry D. ; MacFadden, Derek R. ; Baral, Stefan ; Mishra, Sharmistha. / Influence of serosorting and intervention-mediated changes in serosorting on the population-level HIV transmission impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men : A mathematical modelling study. In: Unknown Journal. 2020.

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title = "Influence of serosorting and intervention-mediated changes in serosorting on the population-level HIV transmission impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men: A mathematical modelling study",

abstract = "Background: HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) may change serosorting patterns. We examined the influence of serosorting on the population-level HIV transmission impact of PrEP, and how impact could change if PrEP users stopped serosorting. Methods: We developed a compartmental HIV transmission model parameterized with bio-behavioural and HIV surveillance data among men who have sex with men in Canada. We separately fit the model with serosorting and without serosorting (random partner-selection proportional to availability by HIV-status (sero-proportionate)), and reproduced stable HIV epidemics (2013-2018) with HIV-prevalence 10.3%-24.8%, undiagnosed fraction 4.9%-15.8%, and treatment coverage 82.5%-88.4%. We simulated PrEP-intervention reaching stable coverage by year-1 and compared absolute difference in relative HIV-incidence reduction 10-year post-intervention (PrEP-impact) between: models with serosorting vs. sero-proportionate mixing; and scenarios in which PrEP users stopped vs. continued serosorting. We examined sensitivity of results to PrEP-effectiveness (44%-99%) and coverage (10%-50%). Findings: Models with serosorting predicted a larger PrEP-impact compared with models with sero-proportionate mixing under all PrEP-effectiveness and coverage assumptions (median (inter-quartile-range): 8.1%(5.5%-11.6%)). PrEP users{\textquoteright} stopping serosorting reduced PrEP-impact compared with when PrEP users continued serosorting: reductions in PrEP-impact were minimal (2.1%(1.4%-3.4%)) under high PrEP-effectiveness (86%-99%); however, could be considerable (10.9%(8.2%-14.1%)) under low PrEP effectiveness (44%) and high coverage (30%-50%). Interpretation: Models assuming sero-proportionate mixing may underestimate population-level HIV-incidence reductions due to PrEP. PrEP-mediated changes in serosorting could lead to programmatically-important reductions in PrEP-impact under low PrEP-effectiveness (e.g. poor adherence/retention). Our findings suggest the need to monitor sexual mixing patterns to inform PrEP implementation and evaluation. Funding: Canadian Institutes of Health Research",

keywords = "HIV, Men who have sex with men, Pre-exposure prophylaxis, Serosorting, Sexual mixing patterns",

author = "Linwei Wang and Nasheed Moqueet and Anna Simkin and Jesse Knight and Huiting Ma and Lachowsky, {Nathan J.} and Armstrong, {Heather L.} and Tan, {Darrell H.S.} and Burchell, {Ann N.} and Hart, {Trevor A.} and Moore, {David M.} and Adam, {Barry D.} and MacFadden, {Derek R.} and Stefan Baral and Sharmistha Mishra",

note = "Publisher Copyright: The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.",

year = "2020",

month = feb,

day = "26",

doi = "10.1101/2020.02.26.20025700",

language = "English (US)",

journal = "Advances in Water Resources",

issn = "0309-1708",

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T1 - Influence of serosorting and intervention-mediated changes in serosorting on the population-level HIV transmission impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men

T2 - A mathematical modelling study

AU - Wang, Linwei

AU - Moqueet, Nasheed

AU - Simkin, Anna

AU - Knight, Jesse

AU - Ma, Huiting

AU - Lachowsky, Nathan J.

AU - Armstrong, Heather L.

AU - Tan, Darrell H.S.

AU - Burchell, Ann N.

AU - Hart, Trevor A.

AU - Moore, David M.

AU - Adam, Barry D.

AU - MacFadden, Derek R.

AU - Baral, Stefan

AU - Mishra, Sharmistha

N1 - Publisher Copyright: The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

PY - 2020/2/26

Y1 - 2020/2/26

N2 - Background: HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) may change serosorting patterns. We examined the influence of serosorting on the population-level HIV transmission impact of PrEP, and how impact could change if PrEP users stopped serosorting. Methods: We developed a compartmental HIV transmission model parameterized with bio-behavioural and HIV surveillance data among men who have sex with men in Canada. We separately fit the model with serosorting and without serosorting (random partner-selection proportional to availability by HIV-status (sero-proportionate)), and reproduced stable HIV epidemics (2013-2018) with HIV-prevalence 10.3%-24.8%, undiagnosed fraction 4.9%-15.8%, and treatment coverage 82.5%-88.4%. We simulated PrEP-intervention reaching stable coverage by year-1 and compared absolute difference in relative HIV-incidence reduction 10-year post-intervention (PrEP-impact) between: models with serosorting vs. sero-proportionate mixing; and scenarios in which PrEP users stopped vs. continued serosorting. We examined sensitivity of results to PrEP-effectiveness (44%-99%) and coverage (10%-50%). Findings: Models with serosorting predicted a larger PrEP-impact compared with models with sero-proportionate mixing under all PrEP-effectiveness and coverage assumptions (median (inter-quartile-range): 8.1%(5.5%-11.6%)). PrEP users’ stopping serosorting reduced PrEP-impact compared with when PrEP users continued serosorting: reductions in PrEP-impact were minimal (2.1%(1.4%-3.4%)) under high PrEP-effectiveness (86%-99%); however, could be considerable (10.9%(8.2%-14.1%)) under low PrEP effectiveness (44%) and high coverage (30%-50%). Interpretation: Models assuming sero-proportionate mixing may underestimate population-level HIV-incidence reductions due to PrEP. PrEP-mediated changes in serosorting could lead to programmatically-important reductions in PrEP-impact under low PrEP-effectiveness (e.g. poor adherence/retention). Our findings suggest the need to monitor sexual mixing patterns to inform PrEP implementation and evaluation. Funding: Canadian Institutes of Health Research

AB - Background: HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) may change serosorting patterns. We examined the influence of serosorting on the population-level HIV transmission impact of PrEP, and how impact could change if PrEP users stopped serosorting. Methods: We developed a compartmental HIV transmission model parameterized with bio-behavioural and HIV surveillance data among men who have sex with men in Canada. We separately fit the model with serosorting and without serosorting (random partner-selection proportional to availability by HIV-status (sero-proportionate)), and reproduced stable HIV epidemics (2013-2018) with HIV-prevalence 10.3%-24.8%, undiagnosed fraction 4.9%-15.8%, and treatment coverage 82.5%-88.4%. We simulated PrEP-intervention reaching stable coverage by year-1 and compared absolute difference in relative HIV-incidence reduction 10-year post-intervention (PrEP-impact) between: models with serosorting vs. sero-proportionate mixing; and scenarios in which PrEP users stopped vs. continued serosorting. We examined sensitivity of results to PrEP-effectiveness (44%-99%) and coverage (10%-50%). Findings: Models with serosorting predicted a larger PrEP-impact compared with models with sero-proportionate mixing under all PrEP-effectiveness and coverage assumptions (median (inter-quartile-range): 8.1%(5.5%-11.6%)). PrEP users’ stopping serosorting reduced PrEP-impact compared with when PrEP users continued serosorting: reductions in PrEP-impact were minimal (2.1%(1.4%-3.4%)) under high PrEP-effectiveness (86%-99%); however, could be considerable (10.9%(8.2%-14.1%)) under low PrEP effectiveness (44%) and high coverage (30%-50%). Interpretation: Models assuming sero-proportionate mixing may underestimate population-level HIV-incidence reductions due to PrEP. PrEP-mediated changes in serosorting could lead to programmatically-important reductions in PrEP-impact under low PrEP-effectiveness (e.g. poor adherence/retention). Our findings suggest the need to monitor sexual mixing patterns to inform PrEP implementation and evaluation. Funding: Canadian Institutes of Health Research

KW - HIV

KW - Men who have sex with men

KW - Pre-exposure prophylaxis

KW - Serosorting

KW - Sexual mixing patterns

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