Incidence and Mortality Trends of Atrial Fibrillation/Atrial Flutter in the United States 1990 to 2017

Atrial fibrillation (AF) and flutter (AFL) are the most common clinically significant arrhythmias in older adults with an increasing disease burden due to an aging population. However, up-to-date trends in disease burden and regional variation remain unknown. In an observational study utilizing the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, age-standardized mortality and incidence rates for AF overall and for each state in the United States (US) from 1990 to 2017 were determined. All analyses were stratified by gender. The relative change in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) over the observation period were determined. Trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression analysis. The mean ASIR per 100,000 population for men was 92 (+/-8) and for women was 62 (+/-5) in the US in 2017. The mean ASDR per 100,000 population for men was 5.8 (+/-0.3) and for women was 4.4 (+/-0.4). There were progressive increases in ASIR and ASDR in all but 1 state. The states with the greatest percentage change in incidence were New Hampshire (+13.5%) and Idaho (+16.0%) for men and women, respectively. The greatest change regarding mortality was seen in Mississippi (+26.3%) for men and Oregon (+53.8%) for women. In conclusion these findings provide updated evidence of increasing AF and/or AFL incidence and mortality on a national and regional level in the US, with women experiencing greater increases in incidence and mortality rates. This study demonstrates that the public health burden related to AF in the United States is progressively worsening but disproportionately across states and among women.