Improved methods and assumptions for estimation of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and its impact: Recommendations of the UNAIDS Reference Group on estimates, modelling and projections

Marc Artzrouni, Tim Brown, Griff Feeney, Geoffrey Garnett, Peter Ghys, Nicholas Grassly, Stefano Lazzari, David Schneider, Karen Stanecki, John Stover, Bernhard Schwartländer, Neff Walker, Peter Way, Ping Yan, Basia Zaba, Hania Zlotnik, Ties Boerma, Heena Brahmbhatt, Jesus Maria Calleja, James ChinRoel Coutinho, Francois Dabis, Kevin De Cock, Dan Fitzgerald, Geoff Garnett, Ron Gray, Dwip Kitayaporn, Celia Landmann Szwarcwald, Dilys Morgan, Wiwat Peerpatanapokin, Ram Rangsin, D. K. Reddy, Isabelle De Vincenzi, Roeland Monasch, Wiwat Peeranapatopokin, Ian Timæus

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

UNAIDS and WHO produce biannual country-specific estimates of HIV/AIDS and its impact. These estimates are based on methods and assumptions that reflect the best understanding of HIV epidemiology and demography at the time. Where significant advances are made in epidemiological and demographic research, the methods and assumptions must evolve to match these advances. UNAIDS established an Epidemiology Reference Group in 1999 to advise them and other organisations on HIV epidemiology and methods for making estimates and projections of HIV/AIDS. During the meeting of the reference group in 2001, four priority areas were identified where methods and assumptions should be reviewed and perhaps modified: a) models of the HIV epidemic, b) survival of adults with HIV-1 in low and middle income countries, c) survival of children with HIV-1 in low and middle income countries, and d) methods to estimate numbers of AIDS orphans. Research and literature reviews were carried out by Reference Group members and invited specialists, prior to meetings held during 2001-2. Recommendations reflecting the consensus of the meeting participants on the four priority areas were determined at each meeting. These recommendations were followed in UNAIDS and WHO development of country-specific estimates of HIV/AIDS and its impact for end of 2001.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)W1-W14
JournalAIDS
Volume16
Issue number9
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 14 2002

    Fingerprint

Keywords

  • (MESH)
  • AIDS
  • HIV
  • Mathematical model
  • Mortality
  • Orphans
  • Survival analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Immunology and Allergy
  • Immunology
  • Infectious Diseases

Cite this

Artzrouni, M., Brown, T., Feeney, G., Garnett, G., Ghys, P., Grassly, N., Lazzari, S., Schneider, D., Stanecki, K., Stover, J., Schwartländer, B., Walker, N., Way, P., Yan, P., Zaba, B., Zlotnik, H., Boerma, T., Brahmbhatt, H., Calleja, J. M., ... Timæus, I. (2002). Improved methods and assumptions for estimation of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and its impact: Recommendations of the UNAIDS Reference Group on estimates, modelling and projections. AIDS, 16(9), W1-W14. https://doi.org/10.1097/00002030-200206140-00024