Hypoglycemia prediction using machine learning models for patients with type 2 diabetes

Background: Minimizing the occurrence of hypoglycemia in patients with type 2 diabetes is a challenging task since these patients typically check only 1 to 2 self-monitored blood glucose (SMBG) readings per day. Method: We trained a probabilistic model using machine learning algorithms and SMBG values from real patients. Hypoglycemia was defined as a SMBG value < 70 mg/dL. We validated our model using multiple data sets. In addition, we trained a second model, which used patient SMBG values and information about patient medication administration. Results: The optimal number of SMBG values needed by the model was approximately 10 per week. The sensitivity of the model for predicting a hypoglycemia event in the next 24 hours was 92% and the specificity was 70%. In the model that incorporated medication information, the prediction window was for the hour of hypoglycemia, and the specificity improved to 90%. Conclusions: Our machine learning models can predict hypoglycemia events with a high degree of sensitivity and specificity. These models-which have been validated retrospectively and if implemented in real time-could be useful tools for reducing hypoglycemia in vulnerable patients.