Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States

Vivek Charu, Scott Zeger, Julia Gog, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Stephen Kissler, Lone Simonsen, Bryan T. Grenfell, Cécile Viboud

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Seasonal influenza epidemics offer unique opportunities to study the invasion and re-invasion waves of a pathogen in a partially immune population. Detailed patterns of spread remain elusive, however, due to lack of granular disease data. Here we model high-volume city-level medical claims data and human mobility proxies to explore the drivers of influenza spread in the US during 2002–2010. Although the speed and pathways of spread varied across seasons, seven of eight epidemics likely originated in the Southern US. Each epidemic was associated with 1–5 early long-range transmission events, half of which sparked onward transmission. Gravity model estimates indicate a sharp decay in influenza transmission with the distance between infectious and susceptible cities, consistent with spread dominated by work commutes rather than air traffic. Two early-onset seasons associated with antigenic novelty had particularly localized modes of spread, suggesting that novel strains may spread in a more localized fashion than previously anticipated.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere1005382
JournalPLoS computational biology
Volume13
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 2017

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Ecology
  • Molecular Biology
  • Genetics
  • Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience
  • Computational Theory and Mathematics

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  • Cite this

    Charu, V., Zeger, S., Gog, J., Bjørnstad, O. N., Kissler, S., Simonsen, L., Grenfell, B. T., & Viboud, C. (2017). Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States. PLoS computational biology, 13(2), [e1005382]. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005382