TY - JOUR
T1 - Holiday gatherings, mobility and SARS-CoV-2 transmission
T2 - results from 10 US states following Thanksgiving
AU - Mehta, Shruti H.
AU - Clipman, Steven J.
AU - Wesolowski, Amy
AU - Solomon, Sunil S.
N1 - Funding Information:
We thank Hannah Manley and Katie Schluth for assisting with administrative aspects of the study and data cleaning and Tony Chu and Stephanie Ye for assistance with data visualization. This work was supported by the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Research Response Program. AW is funded by a Career Award at the Scientific Interface by the Burroughs Wellcome Fund and by the National Library of Medicine of the National Institutes of Health (DP2LM013102). SSS is funded by the National Institute on Drug Abuse (DP2DA040244).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s).
PY - 2021/12
Y1 - 2021/12
N2 - Public health officials discouraged travel and non-household gatherings for Thanksgiving, but data suggests that travel increased over the holidays. The objective of this analysis was to assess associations between holiday gatherings and SARS-CoV-2 positivity in the weeks following Thanksgiving. Using an online survey, we sampled 7770 individuals across 10 US states from December 4–18, 2020, about 8–22 days post-Thanksgiving. Participants were asked about Thanksgiving, COVID-19 symptoms, and SARS-CoV-2 testing and positivity in the prior 2 weeks. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 positivity and COVID-19 symptoms in the weeks following Thanksgiving. An activity score measured the total number of non-essential activities an individual participated in the prior 2 weeks. The probability of community transmission was estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. While 47.2% had Thanksgiving at home with household members, 26.9% had guests and 25.9% traveled. There was a statistically significant interaction between how people spent Thanksgiving, the frequency of activities, and SARS-CoV-2 test positivity in the prior 2 weeks (p < 0.05). Those who had guests for Thanksgiving or traveled were only more likely to test positive for SARS-CoV-2 if they also had high activity (e.g., participated in > one non-essential activity/day in the prior 2 weeks). Had individuals limited the number and frequency of activities post-Thanksgiving, cases in surveyed individuals would be reduced by > 50%. As travel continues to increase and the more contagious Delta variant starts to dominate transmission, it is critical to promote how to gather in a “low-risk” manner (e.g., minimize other non-essential activities) to mitigate the need for nationwide shelter-at-home orders.
AB - Public health officials discouraged travel and non-household gatherings for Thanksgiving, but data suggests that travel increased over the holidays. The objective of this analysis was to assess associations between holiday gatherings and SARS-CoV-2 positivity in the weeks following Thanksgiving. Using an online survey, we sampled 7770 individuals across 10 US states from December 4–18, 2020, about 8–22 days post-Thanksgiving. Participants were asked about Thanksgiving, COVID-19 symptoms, and SARS-CoV-2 testing and positivity in the prior 2 weeks. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 positivity and COVID-19 symptoms in the weeks following Thanksgiving. An activity score measured the total number of non-essential activities an individual participated in the prior 2 weeks. The probability of community transmission was estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. While 47.2% had Thanksgiving at home with household members, 26.9% had guests and 25.9% traveled. There was a statistically significant interaction between how people spent Thanksgiving, the frequency of activities, and SARS-CoV-2 test positivity in the prior 2 weeks (p < 0.05). Those who had guests for Thanksgiving or traveled were only more likely to test positive for SARS-CoV-2 if they also had high activity (e.g., participated in > one non-essential activity/day in the prior 2 weeks). Had individuals limited the number and frequency of activities post-Thanksgiving, cases in surveyed individuals would be reduced by > 50%. As travel continues to increase and the more contagious Delta variant starts to dominate transmission, it is critical to promote how to gather in a “low-risk” manner (e.g., minimize other non-essential activities) to mitigate the need for nationwide shelter-at-home orders.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85113842952&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85113842952&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41598-021-96779-6
DO - 10.1038/s41598-021-96779-6
M3 - Article
C2 - 34462499
AN - SCOPUS:85113842952
SN - 2045-2322
VL - 11
JO - Scientific reports
JF - Scientific reports
IS - 1
M1 - 17328
ER -