HIV Incidence and CDC's HIV Prevention Budget. An Exploratory Correlational Analysis

David R. Holtgrave, Jennifer Kates

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Background: The central evaluative question about a national HIV prevention program is whether that program affects HIV incidence. Numerous factors may influence incidence, including public investment in HIV prevention. Few studies, however, have examined the relationship between public investment and the HIV epidemic in the United States. Methods: This 2006 exploratory analysis examined the period from 1978 through 2006 using a quantitative, lagged, correlational analysis to capture the relationship between national HIV incidence and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's HIV prevention budget in the United States over time. Results: The analyses suggest that early HIV incidence rose in advance of the nation's HIV prevention investment until the mid-1980s (1-year lag correlation, r=0.972, df=2, p <0.05). From that point on, it appears that the nation's investment in HIV prevention became a strong correlate of HIV incidence (1-year lag correlation, r=-0.905, df=18, p <0.05). Conclusions: This exploratory study provides correlational evidence of a relationship between U.S. HIV incidence and the federal HIV prevention budget over time, and calls for further analysis of the role of funding and other factors that may influence the direction of a nation's HIV epidemic.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)63-67
Number of pages5
JournalAmerican journal of preventive medicine
Issue number1
StatePublished - Jan 2007

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health


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