HIV combination prevention and declining orphanhood among adolescents, Rakai, Uganda, 2001–18: an observational community cohort study

Background: Orphanhood increased markedly in the 1980s and 1990s in sub-Saharan Africa because of HIV-related mortality. Little is known about the contribution of HIV interventions, such as antiretroviral therapy (ART) and male medical circumcision, to more recent trends in orphanhood. In this study, we examined trends over time in maternal-only, paternal-only, and double orphanhood among adolescents before and after ART and male medical circumcision became widely available in the Rakai region of south-central Uganda. We sought to understand the association between adolescent orphanhood and HIV combination prevention (community-level ART use and prevalence of male medical circumcision). We hypothesised that increasing combination prevention, including greater use of ART and higher prevalence of male medical circumcision, would be associated with a lower probability of orphanhood. Methods: We examined the prevalence of orphanhood among adolescents aged 15–19 years, before and after roll-out of ART in mid-2004 and male medical circumcision in 2007, using data from 28 continuously followed communities within the Rakai Community Cohort Study. We used multinomial logistic regression with clustered SEs to estimate adjusted relative risk ratios (RRs) for maternal-only, paternal-only, and double orphanhood compared with non-orphanhood over 11 survey rounds between 2001 and 2018. Controlling for community HIV prevalence, household socioeconomic status, and adolescent age, we examined the association between community prevalence of ART use among people living with HIV and prevalence of male circumcision, including traditional circumcision. The primary outcome was orphanhood among adolescents aged 15–19 years. Findings: Orphanhood declined from 52% (920 of 1768 participants) in 2001–02 to 23% (592 of 2609 participants) by 2016–18 (p<0·0001), while double orphanhood declined from 20% (346 of 1768 participants) to 3% (86 of 2609 participants) (p<0·0001). Community prevalence of ART use among people living with HIV increased from 11% (105 of 945 participants) in 2005–06 to 78% (1163 of 1485 participants) in 2016–18. Male circumcision rates rose from 19% (147 of 790 participants) in 2005–06 to 65% (3535 of 5433 participants) in 2016–18. In the multinomial logistic regression model, a 10% increase in community prevalence of ART use was associated with a decrease in maternal orphanhood (adjusted relative RR 0·90, 95% CI 0·85–0·95) and double orphanhood (0·80, 0·75–0·85). In the post-ART era, a 10% increase in the community prevalence of male circumcision was associated with a decrease in paternal orphanhood (2005–18, adjusted relative RR 0·92, 0·87–0·97) and double orphanhood (0·91, 0·85–0·98). Interpretation: Widespread availability and uptake of HIV combination prevention was associated with marked reductions in orphanhood among adolescents. Reductions in orphanhood promise improved health and social outcomes for young people. Funding: Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the National Institute of Mental Health, and the Division of Intramural Research of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases.