TY - JOUR
T1 - High-resolution plasmodium falciparum malaria risk mapping in Mutasa District, Zimbabwe
T2 - Implications for regaining control
AU - Kanyangarara, Mufaro
AU - Mamini, Edmore
AU - Mharakurwa, Sungano
AU - Munyati, Shungu
AU - Gwanzura, Lovemore
AU - Kobayashi, Tamaki
AU - Shields, Timothy
AU - Mullany, Luke C.
AU - Mutambu, Susan
AU - Mason, Peter R.
AU - Curriero, Frank C.
AU - Moss, William J.
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was supported by the Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health as part of the International Centers of Excellence for Malaria Research (U19 AI089680).
Publisher Copyright:
© Copyright 2016 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.
PY - 2016/7
Y1 - 2016/7
N2 - In Zimbabwe, more than half of malaria cases are concentrated in Manicaland Province, where seasonal malaria epidemics occur despite intensified control strategies. The objectives of this study were to develop a prediction model based on environmental risk factors and obtain seasonal malaria risk maps for Mutasa District, one of the worst affected districts in Manicaland Province. From October 2012 to September 2015, 483 households were surveyed, and 104 individuals residing within 69 households had positive rapid diagnostic test results. Logistic regression was used to model the probability of household positivity as a function of the environmental covariates extracted from high-resolution remote sensing data sources. Model predictions and prediction standard errors were generated for the rainy and dry seasons. The resulting maps predicted elevated risk during the rainy season, particularly in low-lying areas bordering Mozambique. In contrast, the risk of malaria was low across the study area during the dry season with foci of malaria risk scattered along the northern and western peripheries of the study area. These findings underscore the need for strong cross-border malaria control initiatives to complement country-specific interventions.
AB - In Zimbabwe, more than half of malaria cases are concentrated in Manicaland Province, where seasonal malaria epidemics occur despite intensified control strategies. The objectives of this study were to develop a prediction model based on environmental risk factors and obtain seasonal malaria risk maps for Mutasa District, one of the worst affected districts in Manicaland Province. From October 2012 to September 2015, 483 households were surveyed, and 104 individuals residing within 69 households had positive rapid diagnostic test results. Logistic regression was used to model the probability of household positivity as a function of the environmental covariates extracted from high-resolution remote sensing data sources. Model predictions and prediction standard errors were generated for the rainy and dry seasons. The resulting maps predicted elevated risk during the rainy season, particularly in low-lying areas bordering Mozambique. In contrast, the risk of malaria was low across the study area during the dry season with foci of malaria risk scattered along the northern and western peripheries of the study area. These findings underscore the need for strong cross-border malaria control initiatives to complement country-specific interventions.
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U2 - 10.4269/ajtmh.15-0865
DO - 10.4269/ajtmh.15-0865
M3 - Article
C2 - 27114294
AN - SCOPUS:84977672540
SN - 0002-9637
VL - 95
SP - 141
EP - 147
JO - American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
JF - American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
IS - 1
ER -