TY - JOUR
T1 - H1N1pdm in the Americas
AU - Lessler, Justin
AU - dos Santos, Thais
AU - Aguilera, Ximena
AU - Brookmeyer, Ron
AU - Cummings, Derek A.T.
N1 - Funding Information:
Derek Cummings and Justin Lessler were supported by grants from the National Institutes of Health ( 1 R01 TW008246-01 and 1U54GM088491-0109 ) and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation . Dr. Cummings is a recipient of a Career Award at the Scientific Interface from the Burroughs Wellcome Fund .
Copyright:
Copyright 2011 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2010/9
Y1 - 2010/9
N2 - In late April 2009 the emergence of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1pdm) virus was detected in humans. From its detection through July 18th, 2009, confirmed cases of H1N1pdm in the Americas were periodically reported to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) by member states. Because the Americas span much of the world's latitudes, this data provides an excellent opportunity to examine variation in H1N1pdm transmission by season.Using reports from PAHO member states from April 26th, 2009 through July 18th, 2009, we characterize the early spread of the H1N1 pandemic in the Americas. For a geographically representative sample of member states we estimate the reproductive number (R) of H1N1pdm over the reporting period. The association between these estimates and latitude, temperature, humidity and population age structure was estimated.Estimates of the peak reproductive number of H1N1pdm ranged from 1.3 (for Panama, Colombia) to 2.1 (for Chile). We found that reproductive number estimates were most associated with latitude in both univariate and multivariate analyses. To the extent that latitude is a proxy for seasonal changes in climate and behavior, this association suggests a strong seasonal component to H1N1pdm transmission. However, the reasons for this seasonality remain unclear.
AB - In late April 2009 the emergence of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1pdm) virus was detected in humans. From its detection through July 18th, 2009, confirmed cases of H1N1pdm in the Americas were periodically reported to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) by member states. Because the Americas span much of the world's latitudes, this data provides an excellent opportunity to examine variation in H1N1pdm transmission by season.Using reports from PAHO member states from April 26th, 2009 through July 18th, 2009, we characterize the early spread of the H1N1 pandemic in the Americas. For a geographically representative sample of member states we estimate the reproductive number (R) of H1N1pdm over the reporting period. The association between these estimates and latitude, temperature, humidity and population age structure was estimated.Estimates of the peak reproductive number of H1N1pdm ranged from 1.3 (for Panama, Colombia) to 2.1 (for Chile). We found that reproductive number estimates were most associated with latitude in both univariate and multivariate analyses. To the extent that latitude is a proxy for seasonal changes in climate and behavior, this association suggests a strong seasonal component to H1N1pdm transmission. However, the reasons for this seasonality remain unclear.
KW - Influenza
KW - Pandemic H1N1
KW - Reproductive number
KW - Seasonality
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=77956056651&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=77956056651&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.epidem.2010.07.001
DO - 10.1016/j.epidem.2010.07.001
M3 - Article
C2 - 20847900
AN - SCOPUS:77956056651
VL - 2
SP - 132
EP - 138
JO - Epidemics
JF - Epidemics
SN - 1755-4365
IS - 3
ER -