TY - JOUR
T1 - Future impacts of environmental factors on achieving the SDG target on child mortality—A synergistic assessment
AU - Lucas, Paul L.
AU - Hilderink, Henk B.M.
AU - Janssen, Peter H.M.
AU - KC, Samir
AU - van Vuuren, Detlef P.
AU - Niessen, Louis
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors thank Anne ten Hove and Jan Wijbe Hoekstra for their early work on the GISMO model and Joan Williams of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) for providing the incidence data of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. The work benefitted from funding by the European Horizon 2020 research programme as part of the CD-LINKS project (Linking Climate and Development Policies-Leveraging International Networks and Knowledge Sharing) under grant agreement No. 642147 . Louis Niessen is supported by the NIHR Global Health Research Unit ‘IMPALA’ (grant number 16/136/35 ). The National Institute of Health Research commissioned ‘IMPALA’ using Official Development Assistance (ODA) funding . The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the funders.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2019/7
Y1 - 2019/7
N2 - An estimated 26% of current global child deaths can be attributed to various and modifiable environmental factors, which are addressed under multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study assesses future reductions in child mortality in relation to the achievement of environment-related SDG targets. It uses projections of health risk factors from the IMAGE 3.0 Integrated Assessment Model, based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), linked to a standard multi-state health model (GISMO), distinguishing risk factors, disease occurrence and cause-specific death. The study concludes that, on a global level, the SDG target on child mortality will not be achieved in any of the three SSP scenarios analysed, mainly due to persistent high mortality rates in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. By 2030, environmental health risk factors – including childhood undernutrition, no access to improved drinking water and sanitation, no access to modern fuels and exposure to malaria – will still be responsible for 14% to 16% of total global child deaths (8% to 10% when excluding nutrition-related mortality). Under the middle-of-the-road SSP2 baseline scenario, achievement of the SDG targets on hunger, drinking water and sanitation and modern energy services, would avoid 433 thousand child deaths by 2030. If, in addition, also higher standards would be achieved for access to water and energy, as well as universal secondary female education and advanced malaria control, a total of 733 thousand child deaths is projected to be avoided by 2030 (444 thousand child deaths, when excluding nutrition-related mortality), which would reduce projected global child mortality by 13%. Overall, more than 25% of the child mortality reduction that is needed to achieve the SDG target in Sub-Saharan Africa can be achieved through SDG-related policies on food, water and energy. This requires integrated and intersectoral approaches to environmental health.
AB - An estimated 26% of current global child deaths can be attributed to various and modifiable environmental factors, which are addressed under multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study assesses future reductions in child mortality in relation to the achievement of environment-related SDG targets. It uses projections of health risk factors from the IMAGE 3.0 Integrated Assessment Model, based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), linked to a standard multi-state health model (GISMO), distinguishing risk factors, disease occurrence and cause-specific death. The study concludes that, on a global level, the SDG target on child mortality will not be achieved in any of the three SSP scenarios analysed, mainly due to persistent high mortality rates in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. By 2030, environmental health risk factors – including childhood undernutrition, no access to improved drinking water and sanitation, no access to modern fuels and exposure to malaria – will still be responsible for 14% to 16% of total global child deaths (8% to 10% when excluding nutrition-related mortality). Under the middle-of-the-road SSP2 baseline scenario, achievement of the SDG targets on hunger, drinking water and sanitation and modern energy services, would avoid 433 thousand child deaths by 2030. If, in addition, also higher standards would be achieved for access to water and energy, as well as universal secondary female education and advanced malaria control, a total of 733 thousand child deaths is projected to be avoided by 2030 (444 thousand child deaths, when excluding nutrition-related mortality), which would reduce projected global child mortality by 13%. Overall, more than 25% of the child mortality reduction that is needed to achieve the SDG target in Sub-Saharan Africa can be achieved through SDG-related policies on food, water and energy. This requires integrated and intersectoral approaches to environmental health.
KW - Child mortality
KW - Environmental risk
KW - Integrated analysis
KW - Sustainable development goals
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U2 - 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.05.009
DO - 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.05.009
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85066249682
SN - 0959-3780
VL - 57
JO - Global Environmental Change
JF - Global Environmental Change
M1 - 101925
ER -