Forecasting the economic value of an Enterovirus 71 (EV71) vaccine

Bruce Y. Lee; Angela R. Wateska; Rachel R. Bailey; Julie H.Y. Tai; Kristina M. Bacon; Kenneth J. Smith

doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2010.09.065

Forecasting the economic value of an Enterovirus 71 (EV71) vaccine

Bruce Y. Lee, Angela R. Wateska, Rachel R. Bailey, Julie H.Y. Tai, Kristina M. Bacon, Kenneth J. Smith

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

41 Scopus citations

Abstract

Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is a growing public health concern, especially in Asia. A surge of EV71 cases in 2008 prompted authorities in China to go on national alert. While there is currently no treatment for EV71 infections, vaccines are under development. We developed a computer simulation model to determine the potential economic value of an EV71 vaccine for children (<5 years old) in China. Our results suggest that routine vaccination in China (EV71 infection incidence ≈0.04%) may be cost-effective when vaccine cost is $25 and efficacy ≥70% or cost is $10 and efficacy ≥50%. For populations with higher infection risk (≥0.4%), a $50 or $75 vaccine would be highly cost-effective even when vaccine efficacy is as low as 50%.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	7731-7736
Number of pages	6
Journal	Vaccine
Volume	28
Issue number	49
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2010.09.065
State	Published - Nov 16 2010
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

China
Computer simulation
Economics
Enterovirus 71
Vaccine

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Molecular Medicine
General Immunology and Microbiology
General Veterinary
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Infectious Diseases

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10.1016/j.vaccine.2010.09.065

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title = "Forecasting the economic value of an Enterovirus 71 (EV71) vaccine",

abstract = "Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is a growing public health concern, especially in Asia. A surge of EV71 cases in 2008 prompted authorities in China to go on national alert. While there is currently no treatment for EV71 infections, vaccines are under development. We developed a computer simulation model to determine the potential economic value of an EV71 vaccine for children (<5 years old) in China. Our results suggest that routine vaccination in China (EV71 infection incidence ≈0.04%) may be cost-effective when vaccine cost is $25 and efficacy ≥70% or cost is $10 and efficacy ≥50%. For populations with higher infection risk (≥0.4%), a $50 or $75 vaccine would be highly cost-effective even when vaccine efficacy is as low as 50%.",

keywords = "China, Computer simulation, Economics, Enterovirus 71, Vaccine",

author = "Lee, {Bruce Y.} and Wateska, {Angela R.} and Bailey, {Rachel R.} and Tai, {Julie H.Y.} and Bacon, {Kristina M.} and Smith, {Kenneth J.}",

note = "Funding Information: This research was supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences Models of Infectious Agent Disease Study (MIDAS), Grant 1U54GM088491-0109 and the Vaccine Modeling Initiative (VMI) funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation . The funders had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; and preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript. ",

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doi = "10.1016/j.vaccine.2010.09.065",

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AU - Wateska, Angela R.

AU - Bailey, Rachel R.

AU - Tai, Julie H.Y.

AU - Bacon, Kristina M.

AU - Smith, Kenneth J.

N1 - Funding Information: This research was supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences Models of Infectious Agent Disease Study (MIDAS), Grant 1U54GM088491-0109 and the Vaccine Modeling Initiative (VMI) funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation . The funders had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; and preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript.

PY - 2010/11/16

Y1 - 2010/11/16

N2 - Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is a growing public health concern, especially in Asia. A surge of EV71 cases in 2008 prompted authorities in China to go on national alert. While there is currently no treatment for EV71 infections, vaccines are under development. We developed a computer simulation model to determine the potential economic value of an EV71 vaccine for children (<5 years old) in China. Our results suggest that routine vaccination in China (EV71 infection incidence ≈0.04%) may be cost-effective when vaccine cost is $25 and efficacy ≥70% or cost is $10 and efficacy ≥50%. For populations with higher infection risk (≥0.4%), a $50 or $75 vaccine would be highly cost-effective even when vaccine efficacy is as low as 50%.

AB - Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is a growing public health concern, especially in Asia. A surge of EV71 cases in 2008 prompted authorities in China to go on national alert. While there is currently no treatment for EV71 infections, vaccines are under development. We developed a computer simulation model to determine the potential economic value of an EV71 vaccine for children (<5 years old) in China. Our results suggest that routine vaccination in China (EV71 infection incidence ≈0.04%) may be cost-effective when vaccine cost is $25 and efficacy ≥70% or cost is $10 and efficacy ≥50%. For populations with higher infection risk (≥0.4%), a $50 or $75 vaccine would be highly cost-effective even when vaccine efficacy is as low as 50%.

KW - China

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KW - Economics

KW - Enterovirus 71

KW - Vaccine

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Forecasting the economic value of an Enterovirus 71 (EV71) vaccine

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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