Forecasting Demand for the Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine in Low- and Middle-income Countries

Frédéric Debellut, Nathaniel Hendrix, Virginia E. Pitzer, Kathleen M. Neuzil, Dagna Constenla, Naor Bar-Zeev, Anthony Marfin, Clint Pecenka

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) released a position paper in March 2018 calling for integration of a novel typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) into routine immunization along with catch-up campaigns for children up to age 15. Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, has committed funding to help resource-constrained countries introduce this vaccine. In this article, the Typhoid Vaccine Acceleration Consortium forecasts demand if WHO recommendations are followed. METHODS: We built a model of global TCV introductions between 2020 and 2040 to estimate the demand of the vaccine for 133 countries. We estimated each country's year of introduction by examining its estimated incidence of typhoid fever, its history of introducing new vaccines, and any knowledge we have of its engagement with typhoid prevention, including intention to apply for Gavi funding. Our model predicted use in routine infant vaccination as well as campaigns targeting varying proportions of the unvaccinated population up to 15 years of age. RESULTS: Between 2020 and 2025, demand will predominantly come from African countries, many receiving Gavi support. After that, Asian countries generate most demand until 2030, when campaigns are estimated to end. Demand will then track the birth cohort of participating countries, suggesting an annual routine demand between 90 and 100 million doses. Peak demand is likely to occur between 2023 and 2026, approaching 300 million annual doses if campaign implementation is high. CONCLUSIONS: In our analysis, target population for catch-up campaigns is the main driver of uncertainty. At peak demand, there is some risk of exceeding presently estimated peak production capacity. Therefore, it will be important to carefully coordinate introductions, especially when accompanied by campaigns targeting large proportions of the eligible population.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)S154-S160
JournalClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
Volume68
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 7 2019

Fingerprint

Typhoid-Paratyphoid Vaccines
Conjugate Vaccines
Vaccines
Typhoid Fever
Health Services Needs and Demand
Population
Uncertainty
Immunization
Vaccination
Parturition
Incidence

Keywords

  • demand forecasting
  • typhoid conjugate vaccine
  • typhoid fever
  • vaccination

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Microbiology (medical)
  • Infectious Diseases

Cite this

Forecasting Demand for the Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine in Low- and Middle-income Countries. / Debellut, Frédéric; Hendrix, Nathaniel; Pitzer, Virginia E.; Neuzil, Kathleen M.; Constenla, Dagna; Bar-Zeev, Naor; Marfin, Anthony; Pecenka, Clint.

In: Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, Vol. 68, No. 2, 07.03.2019, p. S154-S160.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Debellut, Frédéric ; Hendrix, Nathaniel ; Pitzer, Virginia E. ; Neuzil, Kathleen M. ; Constenla, Dagna ; Bar-Zeev, Naor ; Marfin, Anthony ; Pecenka, Clint. / Forecasting Demand for the Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine in Low- and Middle-income Countries. In: Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. 2019 ; Vol. 68, No. 2. pp. S154-S160.
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