Exploring the Predictive Validity of the Susceptibility to Smoking Construct for Tobacco Cigarettes, Alternative Tobacco Products, and E-Cigarettes

Adam G. Cole, Ryan David Kennedy, Ashok Chaurasia, Scott T. Leatherdale

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Within tobacco prevention programming, it is useful to identify youth that are at risk for experimenting with various tobacco products and e-cigarettes. The susceptibility to smoking construct is a simple method to identify never-smoking students that are less committed to remaining smoke-free. However, the predictive validity of this construct has not been tested within the Canadian context or for the use of other tobacco products and e-cigarettes. METHODS: This study used a large, longitudinal sample of secondary school students that reported never using tobacco cigarettes and noncurrent use of alternative tobacco products or e-cigarettes at baseline in Ontario, Canada. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the susceptibility construct for predicting tobacco cigarette, e-cigarette, cigarillo or little cigar, cigar, hookah, and smokeless tobacco use 1 and 2 years after baseline measurement were calculated. RESULTS: At baseline, 29.4% of the sample was susceptible to future tobacco product or e-cigarette use. The sensitivity of the construct ranged from 43.2% (smokeless tobacco) to 59.5% (tobacco cigarettes), the specificity ranged from 70.9% (smokeless tobacco) to 75.9% (tobacco cigarettes), and the positive predictive value ranged from 2.6% (smokeless tobacco) to 32.2% (tobacco cigarettes). Similar values were calculated for each measure of the susceptibility construct. CONCLUSIONS: A significant number of youth that did not currently use tobacco products or e-cigarettes at baseline reported using tobacco products and e-cigarettes over a 2-year follow-up period. The predictive validity of the susceptibility construct was high and the construct can be used to predict other tobacco product and e-cigarette use among youth. IMPLICATIONS: This study presents the predictive validity of the susceptibility construct for the use of tobacco cigarettes among secondary school students in Ontario, Canada. It also presents a novel use of the susceptibility construct for predicting the use of e-cigarettes, cigarillos or little cigars, cigars, hookah, and smokeless tobacco among secondary school students in Ontario, Canada.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)323-330
Number of pages8
JournalNicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco
Volume21
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 18 2019

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Tobacco Products
Smoking
Smokeless Tobacco
Tobacco
Electronic Cigarettes
Ontario
Students
Canada
Tobacco Use

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

Cite this

@article{9cffece891d945b3ab25a6dbe27002a8,
title = "Exploring the Predictive Validity of the Susceptibility to Smoking Construct for Tobacco Cigarettes, Alternative Tobacco Products, and E-Cigarettes",
abstract = "INTRODUCTION: Within tobacco prevention programming, it is useful to identify youth that are at risk for experimenting with various tobacco products and e-cigarettes. The susceptibility to smoking construct is a simple method to identify never-smoking students that are less committed to remaining smoke-free. However, the predictive validity of this construct has not been tested within the Canadian context or for the use of other tobacco products and e-cigarettes. METHODS: This study used a large, longitudinal sample of secondary school students that reported never using tobacco cigarettes and noncurrent use of alternative tobacco products or e-cigarettes at baseline in Ontario, Canada. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the susceptibility construct for predicting tobacco cigarette, e-cigarette, cigarillo or little cigar, cigar, hookah, and smokeless tobacco use 1 and 2 years after baseline measurement were calculated. RESULTS: At baseline, 29.4{\%} of the sample was susceptible to future tobacco product or e-cigarette use. The sensitivity of the construct ranged from 43.2{\%} (smokeless tobacco) to 59.5{\%} (tobacco cigarettes), the specificity ranged from 70.9{\%} (smokeless tobacco) to 75.9{\%} (tobacco cigarettes), and the positive predictive value ranged from 2.6{\%} (smokeless tobacco) to 32.2{\%} (tobacco cigarettes). Similar values were calculated for each measure of the susceptibility construct. CONCLUSIONS: A significant number of youth that did not currently use tobacco products or e-cigarettes at baseline reported using tobacco products and e-cigarettes over a 2-year follow-up period. The predictive validity of the susceptibility construct was high and the construct can be used to predict other tobacco product and e-cigarette use among youth. IMPLICATIONS: This study presents the predictive validity of the susceptibility construct for the use of tobacco cigarettes among secondary school students in Ontario, Canada. It also presents a novel use of the susceptibility construct for predicting the use of e-cigarettes, cigarillos or little cigars, cigars, hookah, and smokeless tobacco among secondary school students in Ontario, Canada.",
author = "Cole, {Adam G.} and Kennedy, {Ryan David} and Ashok Chaurasia and Leatherdale, {Scott T.}",
year = "2019",
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doi = "10.1093/ntr/ntx265",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "21",
pages = "323--330",
journal = "Nicotine and Tobacco Research",
issn = "1462-2203",
publisher = "Oxford University Press",
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T1 - Exploring the Predictive Validity of the Susceptibility to Smoking Construct for Tobacco Cigarettes, Alternative Tobacco Products, and E-Cigarettes

AU - Cole, Adam G.

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AU - Chaurasia, Ashok

AU - Leatherdale, Scott T.

PY - 2019/2/18

Y1 - 2019/2/18

N2 - INTRODUCTION: Within tobacco prevention programming, it is useful to identify youth that are at risk for experimenting with various tobacco products and e-cigarettes. The susceptibility to smoking construct is a simple method to identify never-smoking students that are less committed to remaining smoke-free. However, the predictive validity of this construct has not been tested within the Canadian context or for the use of other tobacco products and e-cigarettes. METHODS: This study used a large, longitudinal sample of secondary school students that reported never using tobacco cigarettes and noncurrent use of alternative tobacco products or e-cigarettes at baseline in Ontario, Canada. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the susceptibility construct for predicting tobacco cigarette, e-cigarette, cigarillo or little cigar, cigar, hookah, and smokeless tobacco use 1 and 2 years after baseline measurement were calculated. RESULTS: At baseline, 29.4% of the sample was susceptible to future tobacco product or e-cigarette use. The sensitivity of the construct ranged from 43.2% (smokeless tobacco) to 59.5% (tobacco cigarettes), the specificity ranged from 70.9% (smokeless tobacco) to 75.9% (tobacco cigarettes), and the positive predictive value ranged from 2.6% (smokeless tobacco) to 32.2% (tobacco cigarettes). Similar values were calculated for each measure of the susceptibility construct. CONCLUSIONS: A significant number of youth that did not currently use tobacco products or e-cigarettes at baseline reported using tobacco products and e-cigarettes over a 2-year follow-up period. The predictive validity of the susceptibility construct was high and the construct can be used to predict other tobacco product and e-cigarette use among youth. IMPLICATIONS: This study presents the predictive validity of the susceptibility construct for the use of tobacco cigarettes among secondary school students in Ontario, Canada. It also presents a novel use of the susceptibility construct for predicting the use of e-cigarettes, cigarillos or little cigars, cigars, hookah, and smokeless tobacco among secondary school students in Ontario, Canada.

AB - INTRODUCTION: Within tobacco prevention programming, it is useful to identify youth that are at risk for experimenting with various tobacco products and e-cigarettes. The susceptibility to smoking construct is a simple method to identify never-smoking students that are less committed to remaining smoke-free. However, the predictive validity of this construct has not been tested within the Canadian context or for the use of other tobacco products and e-cigarettes. METHODS: This study used a large, longitudinal sample of secondary school students that reported never using tobacco cigarettes and noncurrent use of alternative tobacco products or e-cigarettes at baseline in Ontario, Canada. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the susceptibility construct for predicting tobacco cigarette, e-cigarette, cigarillo or little cigar, cigar, hookah, and smokeless tobacco use 1 and 2 years after baseline measurement were calculated. RESULTS: At baseline, 29.4% of the sample was susceptible to future tobacco product or e-cigarette use. The sensitivity of the construct ranged from 43.2% (smokeless tobacco) to 59.5% (tobacco cigarettes), the specificity ranged from 70.9% (smokeless tobacco) to 75.9% (tobacco cigarettes), and the positive predictive value ranged from 2.6% (smokeless tobacco) to 32.2% (tobacco cigarettes). Similar values were calculated for each measure of the susceptibility construct. CONCLUSIONS: A significant number of youth that did not currently use tobacco products or e-cigarettes at baseline reported using tobacco products and e-cigarettes over a 2-year follow-up period. The predictive validity of the susceptibility construct was high and the construct can be used to predict other tobacco product and e-cigarette use among youth. IMPLICATIONS: This study presents the predictive validity of the susceptibility construct for the use of tobacco cigarettes among secondary school students in Ontario, Canada. It also presents a novel use of the susceptibility construct for predicting the use of e-cigarettes, cigarillos or little cigars, cigars, hookah, and smokeless tobacco among secondary school students in Ontario, Canada.

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