TY - JOUR
T1 - Evaluation of multi-assay algorithms for cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation in settings with universal antiretroviral treatment
AU - Grant-McAuley, Wendy
AU - Laeyendecker, Oliver
AU - Monaco, Daniel
AU - Chen, Athena
AU - Hudelson, Sarah E.
AU - Klock, Ethan
AU - Brookmeyer, Ron
AU - Morrison, Douglas
AU - Piwowar-Manning, Estelle
AU - Morrison, Charles S.
AU - Hayes, Richard
AU - Ayles, Helen
AU - Bock, Peter
AU - Kosloff, Barry
AU - Shanaube, Kwame
AU - Mandla, Nomtha
AU - van Deventer, Anneen
AU - Ruczinski, Ingo
AU - Kammers, Kai
AU - Larman, H. Benjamin
AU - Eshleman, Susan H.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).
PY - 2022/12
Y1 - 2022/12
N2 - Background: Multi-assay algorithms (MAAs) are used to estimate population-level HIV incidence and identify individuals with recent infection. Many MAAs use low viral load (VL) as a biomarker for long-term infection. This could impact incidence estimates in settings with high rates of early HIV treatment initiation. We evaluated the performance of two MAAs that do not include VL. Methods: Samples were collected from 219 seroconverters (infected < 1 year) and 4376 non-seroconverters (infected > 1 year) in the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial; 28.8% of seroconverter samples and 73.2% of non-seroconverter samples had VLs ≤ 400 copies/mL. Samples were tested with the Limiting Antigen Avidity assay (LAg) and JHU BioRad-Avidity assays. Antibody reactivity to two HIV peptides was measured using the MSD U-PLEX assay. Two MAAs were evaluated that do not include VL: a MAA that includes the LAg-Avidity assay and BioRad-Avidity assay (LAg + BR) and a MAA that includes the LAg-Avidity assay and two peptide biomarkers (LAg + PepPair). Performance of these MAAs was compared to a widely used MAA that includes LAg and VL (LAg + VL). Results: The incidence estimate for LAg + VL (1.29%, 95% CI: 0.97–1.62) was close to the observed longitudinal incidence (1.34% 95% CI: 1.17–1.53). The incidence estimates for the other two MAAs were higher (LAg + BR: 2.56%, 95% CI 2.01–3.11; LAg + PepPair: 2.84%, 95% CI: 1.36–4.32). LAg + BR and LAg + PepPair also misclassified more individuals infected > 2 years as recently infected than LAg + VL (1.2% [42/3483 and 1.5% [51/3483], respectively, vs. 0.2% [6/3483]). LAg + BR classified more seroconverters as recently infected than LAg + VL or LAg + PepPair (80 vs. 58 and 50, respectively) and identified ~ 25% of virally suppressed seroconverters as recently infected. Conclusions: The LAg + VL MAA produced a cross-sectional incidence estimate that was closer to the longitudinal estimate than two MAAs that did not include VL. The LAg + BR MAA classified the greatest number of individual seroconverters as recently infected but had a higher false recent rate.
AB - Background: Multi-assay algorithms (MAAs) are used to estimate population-level HIV incidence and identify individuals with recent infection. Many MAAs use low viral load (VL) as a biomarker for long-term infection. This could impact incidence estimates in settings with high rates of early HIV treatment initiation. We evaluated the performance of two MAAs that do not include VL. Methods: Samples were collected from 219 seroconverters (infected < 1 year) and 4376 non-seroconverters (infected > 1 year) in the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial; 28.8% of seroconverter samples and 73.2% of non-seroconverter samples had VLs ≤ 400 copies/mL. Samples were tested with the Limiting Antigen Avidity assay (LAg) and JHU BioRad-Avidity assays. Antibody reactivity to two HIV peptides was measured using the MSD U-PLEX assay. Two MAAs were evaluated that do not include VL: a MAA that includes the LAg-Avidity assay and BioRad-Avidity assay (LAg + BR) and a MAA that includes the LAg-Avidity assay and two peptide biomarkers (LAg + PepPair). Performance of these MAAs was compared to a widely used MAA that includes LAg and VL (LAg + VL). Results: The incidence estimate for LAg + VL (1.29%, 95% CI: 0.97–1.62) was close to the observed longitudinal incidence (1.34% 95% CI: 1.17–1.53). The incidence estimates for the other two MAAs were higher (LAg + BR: 2.56%, 95% CI 2.01–3.11; LAg + PepPair: 2.84%, 95% CI: 1.36–4.32). LAg + BR and LAg + PepPair also misclassified more individuals infected > 2 years as recently infected than LAg + VL (1.2% [42/3483 and 1.5% [51/3483], respectively, vs. 0.2% [6/3483]). LAg + BR classified more seroconverters as recently infected than LAg + VL or LAg + PepPair (80 vs. 58 and 50, respectively) and identified ~ 25% of virally suppressed seroconverters as recently infected. Conclusions: The LAg + VL MAA produced a cross-sectional incidence estimate that was closer to the longitudinal estimate than two MAAs that did not include VL. The LAg + BR MAA classified the greatest number of individual seroconverters as recently infected but had a higher false recent rate.
KW - Early antiretroviral treatment
KW - HIV incidence estimation
KW - Recent infections
KW - Universal antiretroviral treatment
KW - Viral suppression
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U2 - 10.1186/s12879-022-07850-0
DO - 10.1186/s12879-022-07850-0
M3 - Article
C2 - 36368950
AN - SCOPUS:85141684359
SN - 1471-2334
VL - 22
JO - BMC infectious diseases
JF - BMC infectious diseases
IS - 1
M1 - 838
ER -