Estimation of HIV incidence using multiple biomarkers

Ron Brookmeyer, Jacob Konikoff, Oliver Laeyendecker, Susan H. Eshleman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

51 Scopus citations


The incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is the rate at which new HIV infections occur in populations. The development of accurate, practical, and cost-effective approaches to estimation of HIV incidence is a priority among researchers in HIV surveillance because of limitations with existing methods. In this paper, we develop methods for estimating HIV incidence rates using multiple biomarkers in biological samples collected from a cross-sectional survey. An advantage of the method is that it does not require longitudinal follow-up of individuals. We use assays for BED, avidity, viral load, and CD4 cell count data from clade B samples collected in several US epidemiologic cohorts between 1987 and 2010. Considering issues of accuracy, cost, and implementation, we identify optimal multiassay algorithms for estimating incidence. We find that the multiple-biomarker approach to cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation corrects the significant deficiencies of currently available approaches and is a potentially powerful and practical tool for HIV surveillance.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)264-272
Number of pages9
JournalAmerican journal of epidemiology
Issue number3
StatePublished - Feb 2013


  • HIV
  • acquired immunodeficiency syndrome
  • algorithms
  • cross-sectional studies
  • incidence
  • models, statistical

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Epidemiology


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