TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimating ectopic beat probability with simplified statistical models that account for experimental uncertainty

AU - Jin, Qingchu

AU - Greenstein, Joseph L.

AU - Winslow, Raimond L.

N1 - Funding Information:
Q.J, J.L.G and R.L.W. are funded by National Institutes of Health R01HL105239.
Publisher Copyright:
Copyright: © 2021 Jin et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

PY - 2021/10

Y1 - 2021/10

N2 - Ectopic beats (EBs) are cellular arrhythmias that can trigger lethal arrhythmias. Simulations using biophysically-detailed cardiac myocyte models can reveal how model parameters influence the probability of these cellular arrhythmias, however such analyses can pose a huge computational burden. Here, we develop a simplified approach in which logistic regression models (LRMs) are used to define a mapping between the parameters of complex cell models and the probability of EBs (P(EB)). As an example, in this study, we build an LRM for P(EB) as a function of the initial value of diastolic cytosolic Ca2+ concentration ([Ca2+]iini), the initial state of sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) Ca2+ load ([Ca2+]SRini), and kinetic parameters of the inward rectifier K+ current (IK1) and ryanodine receptor (RyR). This approach, which we refer to as arrhythmia sensitivity analysis, allows for evaluation of the relationship between these arrhythmic event probabilities and their associated parameters. This LRM is also used to demonstrate how uncertainties in experimentally measured values determine the uncertainty in P(EB). In a study of the role of [Ca2+]SRini uncertainty, we show a special property of the uncertainty in P(EB), where with increasing [Ca2+]SRini uncertainty, P(EB) uncertainty first increases and then decreases. Lastly, we demonstrate that IK1 suppression, at the level that occurs in heart failure myocytes, increases P(EB).

AB - Ectopic beats (EBs) are cellular arrhythmias that can trigger lethal arrhythmias. Simulations using biophysically-detailed cardiac myocyte models can reveal how model parameters influence the probability of these cellular arrhythmias, however such analyses can pose a huge computational burden. Here, we develop a simplified approach in which logistic regression models (LRMs) are used to define a mapping between the parameters of complex cell models and the probability of EBs (P(EB)). As an example, in this study, we build an LRM for P(EB) as a function of the initial value of diastolic cytosolic Ca2+ concentration ([Ca2+]iini), the initial state of sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) Ca2+ load ([Ca2+]SRini), and kinetic parameters of the inward rectifier K+ current (IK1) and ryanodine receptor (RyR). This approach, which we refer to as arrhythmia sensitivity analysis, allows for evaluation of the relationship between these arrhythmic event probabilities and their associated parameters. This LRM is also used to demonstrate how uncertainties in experimentally measured values determine the uncertainty in P(EB). In a study of the role of [Ca2+]SRini uncertainty, we show a special property of the uncertainty in P(EB), where with increasing [Ca2+]SRini uncertainty, P(EB) uncertainty first increases and then decreases. Lastly, we demonstrate that IK1 suppression, at the level that occurs in heart failure myocytes, increases P(EB).

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U2 - 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009536

DO - 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009536

M3 - Article

C2 - 34665814

AN - SCOPUS:85117513446

SN - 1553-734X

VL - 17

JO - PLoS Computational Biology

JF - PLoS Computational Biology

IS - 10

M1 - e1009536

ER -