TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimated future HIV prevalence, incidence, and potential infections averted in the United States
T2 - A multiple scenario analysis
AU - Hall, H. Irene
AU - Green, Timothy A.
AU - Wolitski, Richard J.
AU - Holtgrave, David R.
AU - Rhodes, Philip
AU - Lehman, J. Stan
AU - Durden, Teresa
AU - Fenton, Kevin A.
AU - Mermin, Jonathan H.
PY - 2010/10/1
Y1 - 2010/10/1
N2 - Objectives: To estimate the potential future burden of HIV in the United States under different intervention scenarios. Methods: We modeled future HIV incidence, prevalence, and infections averted using 2006 estimates of HIV incidence (55,400 new infections per year), prevalence (1,107,000 persons living with HIV), and transmission rate (5.0 per 100 persons living with HIV). We modeled 10-year trends for 3 base-case scenarios (steady incidence, steady transmission rate, declining transmission rate based on the 2000-2006 trend) and 2 intensified HIV intervention scenarios (50% reduction in transmission rate within 10 and 5 years). Results: Base-case scenarios predicted HIV prevalence increases of 24%-38% in 10 years. Reducing the transmission rate by 50% within 10 years reduces incidence by 40%; prevalence increases 20% to an estimated 1,329,000 persons living with HIV. Halving the transmission rate within 5 years reduces incidence by 46%; prevalence increases 13%, to 1,247,000. Although in year 10 incidence is similar regardless of the intervention time frame, more infections are averted when halving the transmission rate within 5 years. Conclusions: HIV prevalence will likely increase creating additional demands for health care services. These analyses are instructive for setting HIV prevention goals for the nation and assessing potential cost savings of intensified HIV prevention efforts.
AB - Objectives: To estimate the potential future burden of HIV in the United States under different intervention scenarios. Methods: We modeled future HIV incidence, prevalence, and infections averted using 2006 estimates of HIV incidence (55,400 new infections per year), prevalence (1,107,000 persons living with HIV), and transmission rate (5.0 per 100 persons living with HIV). We modeled 10-year trends for 3 base-case scenarios (steady incidence, steady transmission rate, declining transmission rate based on the 2000-2006 trend) and 2 intensified HIV intervention scenarios (50% reduction in transmission rate within 10 and 5 years). Results: Base-case scenarios predicted HIV prevalence increases of 24%-38% in 10 years. Reducing the transmission rate by 50% within 10 years reduces incidence by 40%; prevalence increases 20% to an estimated 1,329,000 persons living with HIV. Halving the transmission rate within 5 years reduces incidence by 46%; prevalence increases 13%, to 1,247,000. Although in year 10 incidence is similar regardless of the intervention time frame, more infections are averted when halving the transmission rate within 5 years. Conclusions: HIV prevalence will likely increase creating additional demands for health care services. These analyses are instructive for setting HIV prevention goals for the nation and assessing potential cost savings of intensified HIV prevention efforts.
KW - Costs
KW - HIV
KW - Incidence
KW - Policies
KW - Prevalence
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U2 - 10.1097/QAI.0b013e3181e8f90c
DO - 10.1097/QAI.0b013e3181e8f90c
M3 - Article
C2 - 20634702
AN - SCOPUS:77957314842
SN - 1525-4135
VL - 55
SP - 271
EP - 276
JO - Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes
JF - Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes
IS - 2
ER -