Abstract
The effectiveness of specific training in statistics and decision-making principles upon physicians' judgmental skills was assessed by means of problems of intuitive logical reasoning. The responses of 43 statistically sophisticated physicians (SP) were compared to those of 42 practicing physicians (PP), 43 clinical nurses (CN) and 41 hospital laborers (HL). On problems evaluating use of faulty heuristics in judgment of conditional probabilities, the SP group's responses were the most biased. The proportion of subjects displaying consistent use of a particular heuristic in solving the three problems were 0.36 (SP), 0.45 (PP), 0.35 (CN) and 0.41 (HL). On problems assessing use of prevalence rate data in estimating probabilities, SP performed substantially better than the other groups: 34% of their responses were accurate. However, 37% of their responses reflected ignorance of prevalence information concepts. We conclude that intensive statistical and decision-making training of physicians is likely to be of only limited value for improving clinicians' judgmental skills.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1939-1943 |
| Number of pages | 5 |
| Journal | Social Science and Medicine |
| Volume | 16 |
| Issue number | 22 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - 1982 |
| Externally published | Yes |
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ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Economics and Econometrics
- Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
- Social Psychology
- Development
- Health(social science)
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Errors of intuitive logic among physicians. / Borak, Jonathan; Veilleux, Suzanne.
In: Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 16, No. 22, 1982, p. 1939-1943.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Errors of intuitive logic among physicians
AU - Borak, Jonathan
AU - Veilleux, Suzanne
PY - 1982
Y1 - 1982
N2 - The effectiveness of specific training in statistics and decision-making principles upon physicians' judgmental skills was assessed by means of problems of intuitive logical reasoning. The responses of 43 statistically sophisticated physicians (SP) were compared to those of 42 practicing physicians (PP), 43 clinical nurses (CN) and 41 hospital laborers (HL). On problems evaluating use of faulty heuristics in judgment of conditional probabilities, the SP group's responses were the most biased. The proportion of subjects displaying consistent use of a particular heuristic in solving the three problems were 0.36 (SP), 0.45 (PP), 0.35 (CN) and 0.41 (HL). On problems assessing use of prevalence rate data in estimating probabilities, SP performed substantially better than the other groups: 34% of their responses were accurate. However, 37% of their responses reflected ignorance of prevalence information concepts. We conclude that intensive statistical and decision-making training of physicians is likely to be of only limited value for improving clinicians' judgmental skills.
AB - The effectiveness of specific training in statistics and decision-making principles upon physicians' judgmental skills was assessed by means of problems of intuitive logical reasoning. The responses of 43 statistically sophisticated physicians (SP) were compared to those of 42 practicing physicians (PP), 43 clinical nurses (CN) and 41 hospital laborers (HL). On problems evaluating use of faulty heuristics in judgment of conditional probabilities, the SP group's responses were the most biased. The proportion of subjects displaying consistent use of a particular heuristic in solving the three problems were 0.36 (SP), 0.45 (PP), 0.35 (CN) and 0.41 (HL). On problems assessing use of prevalence rate data in estimating probabilities, SP performed substantially better than the other groups: 34% of their responses were accurate. However, 37% of their responses reflected ignorance of prevalence information concepts. We conclude that intensive statistical and decision-making training of physicians is likely to be of only limited value for improving clinicians' judgmental skills.
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UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0020361813&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/0277-9536(82)90393-8
DO - 10.1016/0277-9536(82)90393-8
M3 - Article
C2 - 7157027
AN - SCOPUS:0020361813
VL - 16
SP - 1939
EP - 1943
JO - Social Science and Medicine
JF - Social Science and Medicine
SN - 0277-9536
IS - 22
ER -