Abstract
In the Report "Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France," the authors used data from the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship to help calibrate their model. They made the assumption that in addition to the 14 deaths already recorded, the four individuals still in the intensive care unit (ICU) after 2 months would also ultimately die from their infection. This assumption was arrived at after speaking to physicians about long-term outcomes for those in the ICU. However, since the First Release version of this Report was posted, three of those four individuals have left the ICU. In the final published version of the Report, the authors include this new information. They assume that the one passenger still in the ICU will ultimately die, and they present a sensitivity analysis where this passenger survives. This change reduces their estimates of the infection fatality rate (from 0.65% down to 0.53%) and increases the proportion infected on 11 May 2020 (from 4.4% up to 5.3%). The estimates of R0 and the impact of the lockdown as well as all conclusions are unchanged.
Original language | English (US) |
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Journal | Science |
Volume | 368 |
Issue number | 6498 |
DOIs |
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State | Published - Jun 26 2020 |
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- General