TY - JOUR
T1 - Epidemic and endemic cholera trends over a 33-year period in Bangladesh
AU - Longini, Ira M.
AU - Yunus, Mohammed
AU - Zaman, K.
AU - Siddique, A. K.
AU - Sack, R. Bradley
AU - Nizam, Azhar
N1 - Funding Information:
Financial support: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (grants R01-AI32042 and R01-AI39129); International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, which is supported by the aid agencies of the governments of Australia, Bangladesh, Belgium, Canada, Japan, The Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States and by the United Nations Children’s Fund.
PY - 2002/7/15
Y1 - 2002/7/15
N2 - Despite nearly 200 years of study, the mechanisms contributing to the maintenance of endemic cholera and the causes of periodic epidemics remain poorly understood. To investigate these patterns, cholera data collected over 33 years (1966-1998) in Matlab, Bangladesh, were analyzed. Time-lagged autocorrelations were stratified by Vibrio cholerae serogroup, serotype, and biotype. Both classical and El Tor biotypes alternated and persisted between 1966 and 1988; the classical biotype disappeared by 1988, and the O139 serogroup first appeared in 1993. Both the Ogawa and Inaba serotypes circulated the entire time. The autocorrelations revealed that both Inaba and Ogawa epidemics were followed 12 months later by epidemics of the same serotype. Ogawa epidemics, however, were also followed by further Ogawa epidemics only 6 months later. Thus, epidemics of Inaba may selectively confer short-term population-level immunity for a longer period than those of Ogawa. These observations suggest that the Inaba antigen should be maximized in cholera vaccine designs.
AB - Despite nearly 200 years of study, the mechanisms contributing to the maintenance of endemic cholera and the causes of periodic epidemics remain poorly understood. To investigate these patterns, cholera data collected over 33 years (1966-1998) in Matlab, Bangladesh, were analyzed. Time-lagged autocorrelations were stratified by Vibrio cholerae serogroup, serotype, and biotype. Both classical and El Tor biotypes alternated and persisted between 1966 and 1988; the classical biotype disappeared by 1988, and the O139 serogroup first appeared in 1993. Both the Ogawa and Inaba serotypes circulated the entire time. The autocorrelations revealed that both Inaba and Ogawa epidemics were followed 12 months later by epidemics of the same serotype. Ogawa epidemics, however, were also followed by further Ogawa epidemics only 6 months later. Thus, epidemics of Inaba may selectively confer short-term population-level immunity for a longer period than those of Ogawa. These observations suggest that the Inaba antigen should be maximized in cholera vaccine designs.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0037099229&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0037099229&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1086/341206
DO - 10.1086/341206
M3 - Article
C2 - 12134262
AN - SCOPUS:0037099229
SN - 0022-1899
VL - 186
SP - 246
EP - 251
JO - Journal of Infectious Diseases
JF - Journal of Infectious Diseases
IS - 2
ER -