Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States

Bingyi Yang, Angkana T. Huang, Bernardo Garcia-Carreras, William E. Hart, Andrea Staid, Matt D.T. Hitchings, Elizabeth C. Lee, Chanelle J. Howe, Kyra H. Grantz, Amy Wesolowksi, Joseph Chadi Lemaitre, Susan Rattigan, Carlos Moreno, Brooke Borgert, Celeste Dale, Nicole Quigley, Andrew Cummings, Alizée McLorg, Kaelene LoMonaco, Sarah SchlossbergDrew Barron-Kraus, Harrison Shrock, Justin Lessler, Carl D. Laird, Derek A.T. Cummings

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the only widely available tool for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We estimated weekly values of the effective basic reproductive number (Reff) using a mechanistic metapopulation model and associated these with county-level characteristics and NPIs in the United States (US). Interventions that included school and leisure activities closure and nursing home visiting bans were all associated with an Reff below 1 when combined with either stay at home orders (median Reff 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58-1.39)* or face masks (median Reff 0.97, 95% CI 0.58-1.39)*. While direct causal effects of interventions remain unclear, our results suggest that relaxation of some NPIs will need to be counterbalanced by continuation and/or implementation of others.

Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalUnknown Journal
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 3 2020

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine(all)

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