Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19

WHO COVID-19 Modelling Parameters Group

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8-6.9 days, serial interval 4.0-7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3-7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable to interventions. Case burden and infection fatality ratios increased with patient age. Implementation of combined interventions could reduce cases and delay epidemic peak up to 1 month. These parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions. Estimates will likely change as new information becomes available.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)e1-e14
JournalEmerging infectious diseases
Volume26
Issue number11
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 1 2020

Keywords

  • 2019 novel coronavirus disease
  • COVID-19
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • World Health Organization
  • coronavirus
  • epidemiological parameters
  • mathematical modeling
  • severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
  • viruses
  • zoonoses

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Epidemiology
  • Microbiology (medical)
  • Infectious Diseases

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this