Early impact of a national multi-faceted road safety intervention program in Mexico: Results of a time-series analysis

Aruna Chandran, Ricardo Pérez-Núñez, Abdulgafoor M. Bachani, Martha Híjar, Aarón Salinas-Rodríguez, Adnan A. Hyder

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Background: In January 2008, a national multifaceted road safety intervention program (IMESEVI) funded by the Bloomberg Philanthropies was launched in Mexico. Two years later in 2010, IMESEVI was refocused as part of a 10-country international consortium demonstration project (IMESEVI/RS10). We evaluate the initial effects of each phase of the road safety intervention project on numbers of RT crashes, injuries and deaths in Mexico and in the two main target cities of Guadalajara-Zapopan and León. Methods: An interrupted time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling was performed using monthly data of rates of RT crashes and injuries (police data), as well as deaths (mortality system data) from 1999-2011 with dummy variables representing each intervention phase. Results: In the period following the first intervention phase at the country level and in the city of León, the rate of RT crashes decreased significantly (p<0.05). Notably, following the second intervention phase although there was no reduction at the country level, there has been a decrease in the RT crash rate in both Guadalajara-Zapopan (p = 0.029) and in León (p = 0.029). There were no significant differences in the RT injury or death rates following either intervention phase in either city. Conclusion: These initial results suggest that a multi-faceted road safety intervention program appears to be effective in reducing road crashes in a middle-income country setting. Further analysis is needed to differentiate the effects of various interventions, and to determine what other economic and political factors might have affected this change.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere87482
JournalPloS one
Volume9
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 31 2014

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • General

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