TY - JOUR
T1 - Dynamic Simulation of Crime Perpetration and Reporting to Examine Community Intervention Strategies
AU - Yonas, Michael A.
AU - Burke, Jessica G.
AU - Brown, Shawn T.
AU - Borrebach, Jeffrey D.
AU - Garland, Richard
AU - Burke, Donald S.
AU - Grefenstette, John J.
N1 - Funding Information:
This article is published in the Health Education & Behavior supplement, Systems Science Applications in Health Promotion and Public Health, which was supported under contract HHSN276201200329P by the National Institutes of Health Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences Research, the Fogarty International Center, the National Cancer Institute, the National Institute on Dental and Craniofacial Research, and the National Institute on Aging.
Funding Information:
This work was supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences MIDAS grant U54GM088491 and by the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number KL2TR000146.
PY - 2013
Y1 - 2013
N2 - Objective. To develop a conceptual computational agent-based model (ABM) to explore community-wide versus spatially focused crime reporting interventions to reduce community crime perpetrated by youth. Method. Agents within the model represent individual residents and interact on a two-dimensional grid representing an abstract nonempirically grounded community setting. Juvenile agents are assigned initial random probabilities of perpetrating a crime and adults are assigned random probabilities of witnessing and reporting crimes. The agents' behavioral probabilities modify depending on the individual's experience with criminal behavior and punishment, and exposure to community crime interventions. Cost-effectiveness analyses assessed the impact of activating different percentages of adults to increase reporting and reduce community crime activity. Community-wide interventions were compared with spatially focused interventions, in which activated adults were focused in areas of highest crime prevalence. Results. The ABM suggests that both community-wide and spatially focused interventions can be effective in reducing overall offenses, but their relative effectiveness may depend on the intensity and cost of the interventions. Although spatially focused intervention yielded localized reductions in crimes, such interventions were shown to move crime to nearby communities. Community-wide interventions can achieve larger reductions in overall community crime offenses than spatially focused interventions, as long as sufficient resources are available. Conclusion. The ABM demonstrates that community-wide and spatially focused crime strategies produce unique intervention dynamics influencing juvenile crime behaviors through the decisions and actions of community adults. It shows how such models might be used to investigate community-supported crime intervention programs by integrating community input and expertise and provides a simulated setting for assessing dimensions of cost comparison and intervention effect sustainability. ABM illustrates how intervention models might be used to investigate community-supported crime intervention programs.
AB - Objective. To develop a conceptual computational agent-based model (ABM) to explore community-wide versus spatially focused crime reporting interventions to reduce community crime perpetrated by youth. Method. Agents within the model represent individual residents and interact on a two-dimensional grid representing an abstract nonempirically grounded community setting. Juvenile agents are assigned initial random probabilities of perpetrating a crime and adults are assigned random probabilities of witnessing and reporting crimes. The agents' behavioral probabilities modify depending on the individual's experience with criminal behavior and punishment, and exposure to community crime interventions. Cost-effectiveness analyses assessed the impact of activating different percentages of adults to increase reporting and reduce community crime activity. Community-wide interventions were compared with spatially focused interventions, in which activated adults were focused in areas of highest crime prevalence. Results. The ABM suggests that both community-wide and spatially focused interventions can be effective in reducing overall offenses, but their relative effectiveness may depend on the intensity and cost of the interventions. Although spatially focused intervention yielded localized reductions in crimes, such interventions were shown to move crime to nearby communities. Community-wide interventions can achieve larger reductions in overall community crime offenses than spatially focused interventions, as long as sufficient resources are available. Conclusion. The ABM demonstrates that community-wide and spatially focused crime strategies produce unique intervention dynamics influencing juvenile crime behaviors through the decisions and actions of community adults. It shows how such models might be used to investigate community-supported crime intervention programs by integrating community input and expertise and provides a simulated setting for assessing dimensions of cost comparison and intervention effect sustainability. ABM illustrates how intervention models might be used to investigate community-supported crime intervention programs.
KW - agent-based modeling
KW - community crime
KW - community engagement
KW - intervention evaluation
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U2 - 10.1177/1090198113493090
DO - 10.1177/1090198113493090
M3 - Article
C2 - 24084404
AN - SCOPUS:84890953137
SN - 1090-1981
VL - 40
SP - 87S-97S
JO - Health Education and Behavior
JF - Health Education and Behavior
IS - 1 SUPPL.
ER -