Dynamic prediction in functional concurrent regression with an application to child growth

Andrew Leroux, Luo Xiao, Ciprian Crainiceanu, William Checkley

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

In many studies, it is of interest to predict the future trajectory of subjects based on their historical data, referred to as dynamic prediction. Mixed effects models have traditionally been used for dynamic prediction. However, the commonly used random intercept and slope model is often not sufficiently flexible for modeling subject-specific trajectories. In addition, there may be useful exposures/predictors of interest that are measured concurrently with the outcome, complicating dynamic prediction. To address these problems, we propose a dynamic functional concurrent regression model to handle the case where both the functional response and the functional predictors are irregularly measured. Currently, such a model cannot be fit by existing software. We apply the model to dynamically predict children's length conditional on prior length, weight, and baseline covariates. Inference on model parameters and subject-specific trajectories is conducted using the mixed effects representation of the proposed model. An extensive simulation study shows that the dynamic functional regression model provides more accurate estimation and inference than existing methods. Methods are supported by fast, flexible, open source software that uses heavily tested smoothing techniques.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1376-1388
Number of pages13
JournalStatistics in Medicine
Volume37
Issue number8
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 15 2018

Keywords

  • covariance function
  • fPCA
  • face
  • longitudinal data
  • mixed effects
  • penalized splines
  • sparse functional data

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Epidemiology
  • Statistics and Probability

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