Development and validation of the Ontario acute myocardial infarction mortality prediction rules

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate simple statistical models that can be used with hospital discharge administrative databases to predict 30-day and one-year mortality after an acute myocardial infarction (AMI). BACKGROUND: There is increasing interest in developing AMI "report cards" using population-based hospital discharge databases. However, there is a lack of simple statistical models that can be used to adjust for regional and interinstitutional differences in patient case-mix. METHODS: We used linked administrative databases on 52,616 patients having an AMI in Ontario, Canada, between 1994 and 1997 to develop logistic regression statistical models to predict 30-day and one-year mortality after an AMI. These models were subsequently validated in two external cohorts of AMI patients derived from administrative datasets from Manitoba, Canada, and California, U.S. RESULTS: The 11-variable Ontario AMI mortality prediction rules accurately predicted mortality with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.78 for 30-day mortality and 0.79 for one-year mortality in the Ontario dataset from which they were derived. In an independent validation dataset of 4,836 AMI patients from Manitoba, the ROC areas were 0.77 and 0.78, respectively. In a second validation dataset of 112,234 AMI patients from California, the ROC areas were 0.77 and 0.78 respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The Ontario AMI mortality prediction rules predict quite accurately 30-day and one-year mortality after an AMI in linked hospital discharge databases of AMI patients from Ontario, Manitoba and California. These models may also be useful to outcomes and quality measurement researchers in other jurisdictions.