TY - JOUR
T1 - Cumulative incidence and diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection in New York
AU - Rosenberg, Eli S.
AU - Tesoriero, James M.
AU - Rosenthal, Elizabeth M.
AU - Chung, Rakkoo
AU - Barranco, Meredith A.
AU - Styer, Linda M.
AU - Parker, Monica M.
AU - John Leung, Shu Yin
AU - Morne, Johanne E.
AU - Greene, Danielle
AU - Holtgrave, David R.
AU - Hoefer, Dina
AU - Kumar, Jessica
AU - Udo, Tomoko
AU - Hutton, Brad
AU - Zucker, Howard A.
N1 - Funding Information:
The co-authors wish to acknowledge the following essential contributors to this work. Peter Cichetti, Antibody Sampling and Testing Team Co-Lead, Lyla Hunt and Patrick McKeage, Antibody Sampling and Testing Team Co-Coordinators, Thomas Sullivan, Logistical Support Lead for the Antibody Sampling and Testing Team. Data Leadership Team members Jason Ganns, Melissa Kamal, Alison Pingelski, Mary McCormick, Ann Lowenfels and Rebecca Hoen. Michelle Cummings for data management. Amy Kelly for literature review contributions. All members of the New York State Antibody Sampling and Testing Team, including the Call Center team who placed thousands of phone calls to deliver test results and to collect demographic data. Office of Quality and Patient Safety team members James Kirkwood and Meng Wu. Eric Hall at Emory University for map assistance. We thank Dr. William Lee for assistance with assay development and validation, Jean Rock and the Wadsworth Center COVID-19 serology team especially Rachel Bievenue, Seth Blumerman, Theresa Hattenrath, Jim Long, Kate Mastraccio, Erica Miller, Katie Nemeth, and Alyssa Sossei, and numerous members of Wadsworth Center's Newborn Screening Program especially Beth Vogel, Michele Caggana and Rhonda Hamel. Special thanks to Adrienne Mazeau for her leadership and guidance. Special recognition and thanks to DHSES (Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Services) for their tremendous support to the NYSDOH. This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. Authors' contributions: ESR contributed to methodology, writing—original draft, review, and editing, and formal analysis. JMT contributed to supervision, investigation, writing—original draft, review, and editing. EMR, RC, MAB, and S-YJL contributed to formal analysis. LMS and MMP contributed to investigation, resources, and validation. JEM and DG contributed to project administration, supervision, investigation, and resources. DRH, JK, and TU contributed to writing—review and editing. DH contributed to data curation and writing—review and editing. BH and HAZ contributed to project administration, supervision, investigation, and resources.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 Elsevier Inc.
PY - 2020/8
Y1 - 2020/8
N2 - Purpose: New York State (NYS) is an epicenter of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the United States. Reliable estimates of cumulative incidence in the population are critical to tracking the extent of transmission and informing policies. Methods: We conducted a statewide seroprevalence study in a 15,101 patron convenience sample at 99 grocery stores in 26 counties throughout NYS. SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence was estimated from antibody reactivity by first poststratification weighting and then adjusting by antibody test characteristics. The percent diagnosed was estimated by dividing the number of diagnoses by the number of estimated infection-experienced adults. Results: Based on 1887 of 15,101 (12.5%) reactive results, estimated cumulative incidence through March 29 was 14.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 13.3%–14.7%), corresponding to 2,139,300 (95% CI: 2,035,800–2,242,800) infection-experienced adults. Cumulative incidence was highest in New York City 22.7% (95% CI: 21.5%–24.0%) and higher among Hispanic/Latino (29.2%), non-Hispanic black/African American (20.2%), and non-Hispanic Asian (12.4%) than non-Hispanic white adults (8.1%, P <.0001). An estimated 8.9% (95% CI: 8.4%–9.3%) of infections in NYS were diagnosed, with diagnosis highest among adults aged 55 years or older (11.3%, 95% CI: 10.4%–12.2%). Conclusions: From the largest U.S. serosurvey to date, we estimated >2 million adult New York residents were infected through late March, with substantial disparities, although cumulative incidence remained less than herd immunity thresholds. Monitoring, testing, and contact tracing remain essential public health strategies.
AB - Purpose: New York State (NYS) is an epicenter of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the United States. Reliable estimates of cumulative incidence in the population are critical to tracking the extent of transmission and informing policies. Methods: We conducted a statewide seroprevalence study in a 15,101 patron convenience sample at 99 grocery stores in 26 counties throughout NYS. SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence was estimated from antibody reactivity by first poststratification weighting and then adjusting by antibody test characteristics. The percent diagnosed was estimated by dividing the number of diagnoses by the number of estimated infection-experienced adults. Results: Based on 1887 of 15,101 (12.5%) reactive results, estimated cumulative incidence through March 29 was 14.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 13.3%–14.7%), corresponding to 2,139,300 (95% CI: 2,035,800–2,242,800) infection-experienced adults. Cumulative incidence was highest in New York City 22.7% (95% CI: 21.5%–24.0%) and higher among Hispanic/Latino (29.2%), non-Hispanic black/African American (20.2%), and non-Hispanic Asian (12.4%) than non-Hispanic white adults (8.1%, P <.0001). An estimated 8.9% (95% CI: 8.4%–9.3%) of infections in NYS were diagnosed, with diagnosis highest among adults aged 55 years or older (11.3%, 95% CI: 10.4%–12.2%). Conclusions: From the largest U.S. serosurvey to date, we estimated >2 million adult New York residents were infected through late March, with substantial disparities, although cumulative incidence remained less than herd immunity thresholds. Monitoring, testing, and contact tracing remain essential public health strategies.
KW - Coronavirus
KW - Epidemics
KW - Epidemiology
KW - Infectious diseases
KW - Seroepidemiologic studies
KW - Seroprevalence
KW - Surveillance
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U2 - 10.1016/j.annepidem.2020.06.004
DO - 10.1016/j.annepidem.2020.06.004
M3 - Article
C2 - 32648546
AN - SCOPUS:85087749577
VL - 48
SP - 23-29.e4
JO - Annals of Epidemiology
JF - Annals of Epidemiology
SN - 1047-2797
ER -