Cox processes for estimating temporal variation in disease risk

Marina Silva Paez, Peter J. Diggle

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

We propose a class of Cox processes as models for the times of occurrence of cases of a disease, and develop associated methods of Bayesian inference for parameter estimation and for prediction of the temporal variation in disease risk. The data may consist of either incidence times of individual cases or counts of the numbers of incident cases in disjoint time-intervals. We explore the consequences of working with different levels of temporal aggregation of the data. We use a simulated example to demonstrate the feasibility of our methodology, which we then apply to data giving daily counts of incident cases of gastrointestinal infections in the county of Hampshire, UK.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)981-1003
Number of pages23
JournalEnvironmetrics
Volume20
Issue number8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2009
Externally publishedYes

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Keywords

  • Bayesian inference
  • Cox processs
  • Disease surveillance
  • Gastrointestinal disease
  • Monte carlo inference
  • Point process

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecological Modeling
  • Statistics and Probability

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