Could a single dose of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in children be effective? Modeling the optimal age of vaccination

Ezra J. Barzilay, Katherine L O'Brien, Yeong S. Kwok, Robert M. Hoekstra, Elizabeth R. Zell, Raymond Reid, Mathuram Santosham, Cynthia G. Whitney, Daniel Feikin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Using incidence rates from CDC's Active Bacterial Core surveillance and immunogenicity data from the Navajo/Apache trial of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV), we used Markov modeling to predict the optimal age to give a single dose of PCV. Antibody concentration thresholds of 0.35 and 1.0 mcg/ml were considered protective. Our outcome was vaccine serotype-specific invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence at 24 months. The models predicted the optimal age to vaccinate is 5-7 months with vaccine-induced immunologic memory and 8-10 months without memory. IPD reduction ranged from 15 to 62%, depending on model parameters. A single PCV dose in infants could prevent substantial IPD.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)904-913
Number of pages10
JournalVaccine
Volume24
Issue number7
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 13 2006

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Conjugate Vaccines
Pneumococcal Vaccines
Vaccination
vaccination
vaccines
Vaccines
dosage
Immunologic Memory
Incidence
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.)
Antibodies
disease incidence
serotypes
immune response
incidence
antibodies
monitoring

Keywords

  • Markov model
  • Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine
  • Reduced dose vaccination model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Immunology
  • Microbiology
  • Virology
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
  • veterinary(all)

Cite this

Could a single dose of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in children be effective? Modeling the optimal age of vaccination. / Barzilay, Ezra J.; O'Brien, Katherine L; Kwok, Yeong S.; Hoekstra, Robert M.; Zell, Elizabeth R.; Reid, Raymond; Santosham, Mathuram; Whitney, Cynthia G.; Feikin, Daniel.

In: Vaccine, Vol. 24, No. 7, 13.02.2006, p. 904-913.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Barzilay, Ezra J. ; O'Brien, Katherine L ; Kwok, Yeong S. ; Hoekstra, Robert M. ; Zell, Elizabeth R. ; Reid, Raymond ; Santosham, Mathuram ; Whitney, Cynthia G. ; Feikin, Daniel. / Could a single dose of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in children be effective? Modeling the optimal age of vaccination. In: Vaccine. 2006 ; Vol. 24, No. 7. pp. 904-913.
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