COPEWELL: A Conceptual Framework and System Dynamics Model for Predicting Community Functioning and Resilience After Disasters

Jonathan M Links, Brian S Schwartz, Sen Lin, Norma F Kanarek, Judith Mitrani-Reiser, Tara Kirk Sell, Crystal R Watson, Doug Ward, Cathy Slemp, Robert Burhans, Kimberly Gill, Takeru Igusa, Xilei Zhao, Benigno Aguirre, Joseph Trainor, Joanne Nigg, Thomas Inglesby, Eric Carbone, James M. Kendra

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Objective: Policy-makers and practitioners have a need to assess community resilience in disasters. Prior efforts conflated resilience with community functioning, combined resistance and recovery (the components of resilience), and relied on a static model for what is inherently a dynamic process. We sought to develop linked conceptual and computational models of community functioning and resilience after a disaster. Methods: We developed a system dynamics computational model that predicts community functioning after a disaster. The computational model outputted the time course of community functioning before, during, and after a disaster, which was used to calculate resistance, recovery, and resilience for all US counties. Results: The conceptual model explicitly separated resilience from community functioning and identified all key components for each, which were translated into a system dynamics computational model with connections and feedbacks. The components were represented by publicly available measures at the county level. Baseline community functioning, resistance, recovery, and resilience evidenced a range of values and geographic clustering, consistent with hypotheses based on the disaster literature. Conclusions: The work is transparent, motivates ongoing refinements, and identifies areas for improved measurements. After validation, such a model can be used to identify effective investments to enhance community resilience.(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;page 1 of 11)

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1-11
Number of pages11
JournalDisaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness
DOIs
StateAccepted/In press - Jun 21 2017

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Keywords

  • community functioning
  • resilience
  • system dynamics

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

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