Containing pandemic influenza at the source

Ira M. Longini, Azhar Nizam, Shufu Xu, Kumnuan Ungchusak, Wanna Hanshaoworakul, Derek A T Cummings, M. Elizabeth Halloran

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Highly pathogenic avian influenza A (subtype H5N1) is threatening to cause a human pandemic of potentially devastating proportions. We used a stochastic influenza simulation model for rural Southeast Asia to investigate the effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, quarantine, and pre-vaccination in containing an emerging influenza strain at the source. If the basic reproductive number (Ro) was below 1.60, our simulations showed that a prepared response with targeted antivirals would have a high probability of containing the disease. In that case, an antiviral agent stockpile on the order of 100,000 to 1 million courses for treatment and prophylaxis would be sufficient. If pre-vaccination occurred, then targeted antiviral prophylaxis could be effective for containing strains with an Ro as high as 2.1. Combinations of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, pre-vaccination, and quarantine could contain strains with an Ro as high as 2.4.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1083-1087
Number of pages5
JournalScience
Volume309
Issue number5737
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 12 2005

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Pandemics
Human Influenza
Antiviral Agents
Quarantine
Vaccination
Southeastern Asia
Influenza in Birds

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

Cite this

Longini, I. M., Nizam, A., Xu, S., Ungchusak, K., Hanshaoworakul, W., Cummings, D. A. T., & Halloran, M. E. (2005). Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Science, 309(5737), 1083-1087. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1115717

Containing pandemic influenza at the source. / Longini, Ira M.; Nizam, Azhar; Xu, Shufu; Ungchusak, Kumnuan; Hanshaoworakul, Wanna; Cummings, Derek A T; Halloran, M. Elizabeth.

In: Science, Vol. 309, No. 5737, 12.08.2005, p. 1083-1087.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Longini, IM, Nizam, A, Xu, S, Ungchusak, K, Hanshaoworakul, W, Cummings, DAT & Halloran, ME 2005, 'Containing pandemic influenza at the source', Science, vol. 309, no. 5737, pp. 1083-1087. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1115717
Longini IM, Nizam A, Xu S, Ungchusak K, Hanshaoworakul W, Cummings DAT et al. Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Science. 2005 Aug 12;309(5737):1083-1087. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1115717
Longini, Ira M. ; Nizam, Azhar ; Xu, Shufu ; Ungchusak, Kumnuan ; Hanshaoworakul, Wanna ; Cummings, Derek A T ; Halloran, M. Elizabeth. / Containing pandemic influenza at the source. In: Science. 2005 ; Vol. 309, No. 5737. pp. 1083-1087.
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