Containing pandemic influenza at the source

Ira M. Longini, Azhar Nizam, Shufu Xu, Kumnuan Ungchusak, Wanna Hanshaoworakul, Derek A T Cummings, M. Elizabeth Halloran

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Highly pathogenic avian influenza A (subtype H5N1) is threatening to cause a human pandemic of potentially devastating proportions. We used a stochastic influenza simulation model for rural Southeast Asia to investigate the effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, quarantine, and pre-vaccination in containing an emerging influenza strain at the source. If the basic reproductive number (Ro) was below 1.60, our simulations showed that a prepared response with targeted antivirals would have a high probability of containing the disease. In that case, an antiviral agent stockpile on the order of 100,000 to 1 million courses for treatment and prophylaxis would be sufficient. If pre-vaccination occurred, then targeted antiviral prophylaxis could be effective for containing strains with an Ro as high as 2.1. Combinations of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, pre-vaccination, and quarantine could contain strains with an Ro as high as 2.4.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1083-1087
Number of pages5
JournalScience
Volume309
Issue number5737
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 12 2005

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

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