TY - JOUR
T1 - Complying with the framework convention for tobacco control
T2 - An application of the Abridged SimSmoke model to Israel
AU - Levy, David
AU - Abrams, David B.
AU - Levy, Jeffrey
AU - Rosen, Laura
N1 - Funding Information:
1David T. Levy, Department of Oncology, Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC, USA. He is a Professor of Oncology at Georgetown University. He has been Principal Investigator on grants from the US National Cancer Institute, US Centers for Disease Control, US National Institute on Drug Abuse, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, the World Health Organization. He has published over 200 articles, including 50 articles related to the SimSmoke model. He has acted as consultant to the Institute of Medicine, the World Health Organization, the Rockefeller Foundation, and more than 40 countries on tobacco control and on obesity policy. 2David B. Abrams, PhD Dept. of Health, Behavior and Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA Department of Oncology, Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC, USA. He directed the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences Research (OBSSR) and was President of the Society of Behavioral Medicine. He has published over 250 articles and been an investigator on many NIH grants, including The Center for Evaluation and Coordination of Training and Research in Tobacco Regulatory Science. His awards include: Society of Behavioral Medicine Distinguished Scientist Award; American Academy of Health Behavior Research Laureate Award; Book of the Year Award for Tobacco Dependence Treatment Handbook: A Guide to Best Practices; and the Joseph W. Cullen Memorial Award for lifetime contributions to Tobacco Research, American Society for Preventive Oncology. 3Jeffrey Levy, MA, Washington, DC teaches Algebra in a Public School in Virginia and acts as a research assistant for his father. 4Laura Rosen, PhD, Department of Health Promotion, School of Public Health, Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Ramat Aviv, Israel. LJR chairs the Dept. of Health Promotion at the School of Public Health at Tel Aviv University. Her primary area of research is tobacco control. She was National Coordinator for Healthy Israel 2020 from 2005–2006, served as Senior Consultant to the Ministry of Health on the initiative from 2006–2007, and chaired the Tobacco Control 2020 Subcommittee. She was also a member of the Public Committee for Reduction of Smoking and its Harm.
Funding Information:
David Levy received funding from Truth Initiative and the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) of the Division of Cancer Control and Prevention Sciences, National Cancer Institute, US National Institute of Health under grant UO1-CA97450-02 for general development of the SimSmoke model.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 The Author(s).
PY - 2016/9/15
Y1 - 2016/9/15
N2 - Background: The World Health Organization Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC) established the MPOWER policy package to provide practical country-level guidance on implementing effective policies to reduce smoking rates. The Abridged SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model is applied to Israel to estimate the effects on reducing smoking-attributable mortality resulting from full implementation of MPOWER policies. Methods: Smoking prevalence from the 2014 Israel National Health Interview Survey 3 and population data from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics were used to calculate the number of current smokers. The status of current Israeli policy was determined using information from MPOWER 2015 and from local sources. Based on existing knowledge that between 50 % and 65 % of smokers will die prematurely from smoking, the model is used to determine mortality reductions among current smokers from full implementation of MPOWER policies. Results: We estimate that between 550 and 710 thousand smokers of the current 1.1 million Israeli smokers will prematurely die due to smoking. Within 40 years, complete implementation of MPOWER policies is projected to reduce smoking prevalence among current smokers by 34 % and avert between 188 and 245 thousand deaths among current smokers. Taxes, smoke-free air laws, marketing restrictions and media campaigns each reduce smoking by about 5 % within 5 years. Improved cessation treatment and health warnings each have smaller effects in the next five years, but their effects grow rapidly over time. Conclusions: Israel Abridged SimSmoke shows that complete implementation of the MPOWER strategies has the potential to substantially reduce smoking prevalence, and avert premature deaths due to smoking. Additional benefits are also expected from reduced morbidity, reduced initiation among nonsmokers, and reduction in exposure of nonsmokers to tobacco smoke.
AB - Background: The World Health Organization Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC) established the MPOWER policy package to provide practical country-level guidance on implementing effective policies to reduce smoking rates. The Abridged SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model is applied to Israel to estimate the effects on reducing smoking-attributable mortality resulting from full implementation of MPOWER policies. Methods: Smoking prevalence from the 2014 Israel National Health Interview Survey 3 and population data from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics were used to calculate the number of current smokers. The status of current Israeli policy was determined using information from MPOWER 2015 and from local sources. Based on existing knowledge that between 50 % and 65 % of smokers will die prematurely from smoking, the model is used to determine mortality reductions among current smokers from full implementation of MPOWER policies. Results: We estimate that between 550 and 710 thousand smokers of the current 1.1 million Israeli smokers will prematurely die due to smoking. Within 40 years, complete implementation of MPOWER policies is projected to reduce smoking prevalence among current smokers by 34 % and avert between 188 and 245 thousand deaths among current smokers. Taxes, smoke-free air laws, marketing restrictions and media campaigns each reduce smoking by about 5 % within 5 years. Improved cessation treatment and health warnings each have smaller effects in the next five years, but their effects grow rapidly over time. Conclusions: Israel Abridged SimSmoke shows that complete implementation of the MPOWER strategies has the potential to substantially reduce smoking prevalence, and avert premature deaths due to smoking. Additional benefits are also expected from reduced morbidity, reduced initiation among nonsmokers, and reduction in exposure of nonsmokers to tobacco smoke.
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U2 - 10.1186/s13584-016-0101-8
DO - 10.1186/s13584-016-0101-8
M3 - Article
C2 - 27651891
AN - SCOPUS:84987768496
SN - 2045-4015
VL - 5
JO - Israel journal of health policy research
JF - Israel journal of health policy research
IS - 1
M1 - 41
ER -