Comparison of the framingham heart study hypertension model with blood pressure alone in the prediction of risk of hypertension

The multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis

Paul Muntner, Mark Woodward, Devin M. Mann, Daichi Shimbo, Erin Donnelly Michos, Roger S Blumenthal, April P. Carson, Haiying Chen, Donna K. Arnett

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

A prediction model, developed in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS), has been proposed for use in estimating a given individual's risk of hypertension. We compared this model with systolic blood pressure (SBP) alone and age-specific diastolic blood pressure categories for the prediction of hypertension. Participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, without hypertension or diabetes mellitus (n=3013), were followed for the incidence of hypertension (SBP ≥140 mm Hg and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg and/or the initiation of antihypertensive medication). The predicted probability of developing hypertension among 4 adjacent study examinations, with a median of 1.6 years between examinations, was determined. The mean (SD) age of participants was 58.5 (9.7) years, and 53% were women. During follow-up, 849 incident cases of hypertension occurred. The c statistic for the FHS model was 0.788 (95% CI: 0.773 to 0.804) compared with 0.768 (95% CI: 0.751 to 0.785; P=0.096 compared with the FHS model) for SBP alone and 0.699 (95% CI: 0.681 to 0.717; P

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1339-1345
Number of pages7
JournalHypertension
Volume55
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 2010

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Atherosclerosis
Blood Pressure
Hypertension
Antihypertensive Agents
Diabetes Mellitus
Incidence

Keywords

  • Diastolic blood pressure
  • Epidemiology
  • Hypertension
  • Risk prediction
  • Systolic blood pressure

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Internal Medicine

Cite this

Comparison of the framingham heart study hypertension model with blood pressure alone in the prediction of risk of hypertension : The multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis. / Muntner, Paul; Woodward, Mark; Mann, Devin M.; Shimbo, Daichi; Michos, Erin Donnelly; Blumenthal, Roger S; Carson, April P.; Chen, Haiying; Arnett, Donna K.

In: Hypertension, Vol. 55, No. 6, 06.2010, p. 1339-1345.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Muntner, Paul ; Woodward, Mark ; Mann, Devin M. ; Shimbo, Daichi ; Michos, Erin Donnelly ; Blumenthal, Roger S ; Carson, April P. ; Chen, Haiying ; Arnett, Donna K. / Comparison of the framingham heart study hypertension model with blood pressure alone in the prediction of risk of hypertension : The multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis. In: Hypertension. 2010 ; Vol. 55, No. 6. pp. 1339-1345.
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