Comparison of risk scores for the prediction of stroke in African Americans

Findings from the Jackson Heart Study

Randi E. Foraker, Melissa Greiner, Mario Sims, Katherine L. Tucker, Amytis Towfighi, Aurelian Bidulescu, Abigail B. Shoben, Sakima Smith, Sameera Talegawkar, Chad Blackshear, Wei Wang, Natalie Chantelle Hardy, Emily O'Brien

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Background Evidence from existing cohort studies supports the prediction of incident coronary heart disease and stroke using 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores and the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association's cardiovascular health (CVH) metric. Methods We included all Jackson Heart Study participants with complete scoring information at the baseline study visit (2000-2004) who had no history of stroke (n = 4,140). We used Kaplan-Meier methods to calculate the cumulative incidence of stroke and used Cox models to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs for stroke according to CVD risk and CVH score. We compared the discrimination of the 2 models according to the Harrell c index and plotted predicted vs observed stroke risk calibration plots for each of the 2 models. Results The median age of the African American participants was 54.5 years, and 65% were female. The cumulative incidence of stroke increased across worsening categories of CVD risk and CVH. A 1-unit increase in CVD risk increased the hazard of stroke (1.07, 1.06-1.08), whereas each 1-unit increase in CVH corresponded to a decreased hazard of stroke (0.76, 0.69-0.83). As evidenced by the c statistics, the CVH model was less discriminating than the CVD risk model (0.59 [0.55-0.64] vs 0.79 [0.76-0.83]). Conclusions Both scores were associated with incident stroke in a dose-response fashion; however, the CVD risk model was more discriminating than the CVH model. The CVH score may still be preferable for its simplicity in application to broad patient populations and public health efforts.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)25-32
Number of pages8
JournalAmerican Heart Journal
Volume177
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 1 2016

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African Americans
Stroke
Cardiovascular Diseases
Health
Cardiovascular Models
Incidence
Proportional Hazards Models
Calibration
Coronary Disease
Cohort Studies
Public Health
Myocardial Infarction
Population

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine

Cite this

Foraker, R. E., Greiner, M., Sims, M., Tucker, K. L., Towfighi, A., Bidulescu, A., ... O'Brien, E. (2016). Comparison of risk scores for the prediction of stroke in African Americans: Findings from the Jackson Heart Study. American Heart Journal, 177, 25-32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ahj.2016.04.007

Comparison of risk scores for the prediction of stroke in African Americans : Findings from the Jackson Heart Study. / Foraker, Randi E.; Greiner, Melissa; Sims, Mario; Tucker, Katherine L.; Towfighi, Amytis; Bidulescu, Aurelian; Shoben, Abigail B.; Smith, Sakima; Talegawkar, Sameera; Blackshear, Chad; Wang, Wei; Hardy, Natalie Chantelle; O'Brien, Emily.

In: American Heart Journal, Vol. 177, 01.07.2016, p. 25-32.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Foraker, RE, Greiner, M, Sims, M, Tucker, KL, Towfighi, A, Bidulescu, A, Shoben, AB, Smith, S, Talegawkar, S, Blackshear, C, Wang, W, Hardy, NC & O'Brien, E 2016, 'Comparison of risk scores for the prediction of stroke in African Americans: Findings from the Jackson Heart Study', American Heart Journal, vol. 177, pp. 25-32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ahj.2016.04.007
Foraker, Randi E. ; Greiner, Melissa ; Sims, Mario ; Tucker, Katherine L. ; Towfighi, Amytis ; Bidulescu, Aurelian ; Shoben, Abigail B. ; Smith, Sakima ; Talegawkar, Sameera ; Blackshear, Chad ; Wang, Wei ; Hardy, Natalie Chantelle ; O'Brien, Emily. / Comparison of risk scores for the prediction of stroke in African Americans : Findings from the Jackson Heart Study. In: American Heart Journal. 2016 ; Vol. 177. pp. 25-32.
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abstract = "Background Evidence from existing cohort studies supports the prediction of incident coronary heart disease and stroke using 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores and the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association's cardiovascular health (CVH) metric. Methods We included all Jackson Heart Study participants with complete scoring information at the baseline study visit (2000-2004) who had no history of stroke (n = 4,140). We used Kaplan-Meier methods to calculate the cumulative incidence of stroke and used Cox models to estimate hazard ratios and 95{\%} CIs for stroke according to CVD risk and CVH score. We compared the discrimination of the 2 models according to the Harrell c index and plotted predicted vs observed stroke risk calibration plots for each of the 2 models. Results The median age of the African American participants was 54.5 years, and 65{\%} were female. The cumulative incidence of stroke increased across worsening categories of CVD risk and CVH. A 1-unit increase in CVD risk increased the hazard of stroke (1.07, 1.06-1.08), whereas each 1-unit increase in CVH corresponded to a decreased hazard of stroke (0.76, 0.69-0.83). As evidenced by the c statistics, the CVH model was less discriminating than the CVD risk model (0.59 [0.55-0.64] vs 0.79 [0.76-0.83]). Conclusions Both scores were associated with incident stroke in a dose-response fashion; however, the CVD risk model was more discriminating than the CVH model. The CVH score may still be preferable for its simplicity in application to broad patient populations and public health efforts.",
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AU - Towfighi, Amytis

AU - Bidulescu, Aurelian

AU - Shoben, Abigail B.

AU - Smith, Sakima

AU - Talegawkar, Sameera

AU - Blackshear, Chad

AU - Wang, Wei

AU - Hardy, Natalie Chantelle

AU - O'Brien, Emily

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N2 - Background Evidence from existing cohort studies supports the prediction of incident coronary heart disease and stroke using 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores and the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association's cardiovascular health (CVH) metric. Methods We included all Jackson Heart Study participants with complete scoring information at the baseline study visit (2000-2004) who had no history of stroke (n = 4,140). We used Kaplan-Meier methods to calculate the cumulative incidence of stroke and used Cox models to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs for stroke according to CVD risk and CVH score. We compared the discrimination of the 2 models according to the Harrell c index and plotted predicted vs observed stroke risk calibration plots for each of the 2 models. Results The median age of the African American participants was 54.5 years, and 65% were female. The cumulative incidence of stroke increased across worsening categories of CVD risk and CVH. A 1-unit increase in CVD risk increased the hazard of stroke (1.07, 1.06-1.08), whereas each 1-unit increase in CVH corresponded to a decreased hazard of stroke (0.76, 0.69-0.83). As evidenced by the c statistics, the CVH model was less discriminating than the CVD risk model (0.59 [0.55-0.64] vs 0.79 [0.76-0.83]). Conclusions Both scores were associated with incident stroke in a dose-response fashion; however, the CVD risk model was more discriminating than the CVH model. The CVH score may still be preferable for its simplicity in application to broad patient populations and public health efforts.

AB - Background Evidence from existing cohort studies supports the prediction of incident coronary heart disease and stroke using 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores and the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association's cardiovascular health (CVH) metric. Methods We included all Jackson Heart Study participants with complete scoring information at the baseline study visit (2000-2004) who had no history of stroke (n = 4,140). We used Kaplan-Meier methods to calculate the cumulative incidence of stroke and used Cox models to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs for stroke according to CVD risk and CVH score. We compared the discrimination of the 2 models according to the Harrell c index and plotted predicted vs observed stroke risk calibration plots for each of the 2 models. Results The median age of the African American participants was 54.5 years, and 65% were female. The cumulative incidence of stroke increased across worsening categories of CVD risk and CVH. A 1-unit increase in CVD risk increased the hazard of stroke (1.07, 1.06-1.08), whereas each 1-unit increase in CVH corresponded to a decreased hazard of stroke (0.76, 0.69-0.83). As evidenced by the c statistics, the CVH model was less discriminating than the CVD risk model (0.59 [0.55-0.64] vs 0.79 [0.76-0.83]). Conclusions Both scores were associated with incident stroke in a dose-response fashion; however, the CVD risk model was more discriminating than the CVH model. The CVH score may still be preferable for its simplicity in application to broad patient populations and public health efforts.

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