Coexisting attractors in the context of cross-scale population dynamics: Measles in London as a case study

Alexander D. Becker, Susan H. Zhou, Amy Wesolowski, Bryan T. Grenfell

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Patterns of measles infection in large urban populations have long been considered the paradigm of synchronized nonlinear dynamics. Indeed, recurrent epidemics appear approximately mass-action despite underlying heterogeneity. However, using a subset of rich, newly digitized mortality data (1897–1906), we challenge that proposition. We find that sub-regions of London exhibited a mixture of simultaneous annual and biennial dynamics, while the aggregate city-level dynamics appears firmly annual. Using a simple stochastic epidemic model and maximum-likelihood inference methods, we show that we can capture this observed variation in periodicity. We identify agreement between theory and data, indicating that both changes in periodicity and epidemic coupling between regions can follow relatively simple rules; in particular we find local variation in seasonality drives periodicity. Our analysis underlines that multiple attractors can coexist in a strongly mixed population and follow theoretical predictions.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number20191510
JournalProceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Volume287
Issue number1925
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 29 2020

Keywords

  • Cross-scale dynamics
  • Infectious disease dynamics
  • Measles
  • Population dynamics
  • Spatial epidemics

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Coexisting attractors in the context of cross-scale population dynamics: Measles in London as a case study'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this